Regime analytics · public track record
Where the desk actually wins.
The same closed thesis track record, sliced by market regime, hour, direction and conviction. Win-rate counts only decided calls (win/loss); neutral (expired/superseded) is shown separately so it never inflates the number. Pure analysis — no signals here.
Overall win rate
54.5%
114W / 95L · 383 neutral
Best regime
balanced_range_bear_lowvol
100% · 4W/0L
Weakest regime
unknown
0% · 0W/5L
By market regime
| Regime | Win rate | W / L | Neutral | Avg PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| disinflation_range_bull_lowvol | 58.3% | 21/15 | 70 | +1.2% |
| disinflation_range_bear_lowvol | 45.9% | 17/20 | 76 | +1.6% |
| disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol | 50% | 16/16 | 73 | +1.4% |
| disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol | 80% | 12/3 | 13 | +4.1% |
| disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol | 57.9% | 11/8 | 31 | -1% |
| disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol | 58.8% | 10/7 | 45 | +1.9% |
| balanced_range_bull_lowvol | 66.7% | 6/3 | 5 | +0.9% |
| disinflation_trend_bear_normalvol | 83.3% | 5/1 | 7 | +3.1% |
| disinflation_trend_bull_highvol | 44.4% | 4/5 | 17 | +6.4% |
| balanced_range_bear_lowvol | 100% | 4/0 | 5 | +4.7% |
| disinflation_drift_bear_normalvol | 75% | 3/1 | 7 | +2.9% |
| disinflation_range_bear_normalvol | 100% | 2/0 | 3 | +9.5% |
| balanced_drift_bull_normalvol | 50% | 2/2 | 0 | +3.3% |
| unknown | 0% | 0/5 | 4 | -1.7% |
| balanced_drift_bull_lowvol | 0% | 0/2 | 7 | -4.3% |
| risk-on_range_bull_lowvol | 0% | 0/3 | 6 | -0.8% |
By direction
| Side | Win rate | W / L | Neutral | Avg PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| long | 56.8% | 100/76 | 327 | +2.2% |
| short | 42.4% | 14/19 | 55 | -1.2% |
By conviction bucket
| Conviction | Win rate | W / L | Neutral | Avg PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <56 | 44% | 11/14 | 31 | +1% |
| 68-74 | 50.4% | 62/61 | 270 | +1.5% |
| 62-67 | 63.8% | 30/17 | 75 | +1.7% |
| 56-61 | 78.6% | 11/3 | 7 | +3.9% |
By hour generated (UTC)
| Hour | Win rate | W / L | Neutral | Avg PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 UTC | 87.5% | 7/1 | 8 | +0.7% |
| 01:00 UTC | 50% | 1/1 | 12 | -1.5% |
| 02:00 UTC | 57.1% | 4/3 | 17 | +4.2% |
| 03:00 UTC | 85.7% | 6/1 | 9 | +4.2% |
| 04:00 UTC | 25% | 3/9 | 26 | -1.1% |
| 05:00 UTC | 33.3% | 4/8 | 17 | -1% |
| 06:00 UTC | 63.6% | 7/4 | 23 | +0% |
| 07:00 UTC | 54.5% | 6/5 | 10 | -0.8% |
| 08:00 UTC | 23.1% | 3/10 | 22 | -1% |
| 09:00 UTC | 71.4% | 5/2 | 13 | -1.1% |
| 10:00 UTC | 85.7% | 6/1 | 11 | +8.9% |
| 11:00 UTC | 50% | 6/6 | 15 | +3.7% |
| 12:00 UTC | 75% | 6/2 | 24 | +5% |
| 13:00 UTC | 40% | 2/3 | 7 | +1.5% |
| 14:00 UTC | 36.4% | 4/7 | 19 | +0.7% |
| 15:00 UTC | 54.5% | 6/5 | 16 | +4.1% |
| 16:00 UTC | 46.2% | 6/7 | 26 | +0.7% |
| 17:00 UTC | 66.7% | 2/1 | 22 | +2.9% |
| 18:00 UTC | 57.1% | 4/3 | 20 | +2.5% |
| 19:00 UTC | 71.4% | 5/2 | 14 | +4.3% |
| 20:00 UTC | 42.9% | 3/4 | 19 | +1.4% |
| 21:00 UTC | 71.4% | 5/2 | 13 | +1.1% |
| 22:00 UTC | 60% | 6/4 | 9 | +2% |
| 23:00 UTC | 63.6% | 7/4 | 11 | +2.5% |
How to read it
This is the desk's own track record turned into a performance map — which regimes, hours and directions it wins in vs. struggles. It surfaces edges (and blind spots) that a single headline win-rate hides. It does not drive the desk's decisions — theses are generated naturally; this only measures them after the fact. Full log: /track-record.