54.5% WR Sign in

Public · Live · Immutable

Public · Live · Immutable

Track record

Every thesis generated by our AI desk, publicly logged. Outcomes marked when targets hit, stops trigger, or theses expire. No retroactive edits.

See AI vs Buy-and-Hold benchmark

Win rate

all-time

54.5%

▲ 114W▼ 95L— 383N

Expected value / trade

+1.66%

math: WR × avg_win + LR × avg_loss

Profit factor

2.35

gross win / gross loss

Avg win

+5.28%

114 wins · max win not capped

Avg loss

-2.69%

95 stop-outs

Live calls · progress to target

All open theses

Live · 3 open calls tracked against mark price

HBARshortOn track
entry 0.08875target 0.08730
49% to target0% to stop+0.80%
SOLshortBuilding
entry 75.000target 71.500
-8% to target14% to stop-0.37%
VIRTUALshortBuilding
entry 0.73500target 0.69000
-27% to target34% to stop-1.64%

Equity curve · cumulative PnL%

peak+175.2%·final+135.5%

Each closed thesis adds (or subtracts) its actual PnL% to the running total. Not capital-weighted.

Drawdown (from peak)

max -87.0%

Distance below the running peak — pro traders care more about drawdown than ROI.

Monthly performance · since first thesis

3 months · 592 closed1 green2 redΣ +135.55%

Each cell is sum of per-trade % outcomes that closed in that calendar month (UTC). Cell intensity scales with magnitude of monthly PnL; tooltip on hover shows trade count + win rate. No retroactive edits — this is the same outcome timeline the equity curve plots, just rolled up.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Σ year
2026	—	—	—	+165.3544	-28.242	-1.56	—	—	—	—	—	—	+135.55%

Sum of per-trade % PnL in calendar month (UTC).ProfitLossFlat / no trades

By asset · where AI is good (and where it isn't)

30 assets with ≥1 closed thesis

Asset	Total	Closed	Win rate	WR bar	Avg PnL	Drill
INJ	39	8W/7L	53%	n=15	+1.69%
APE	28	8W/2L	80%	n=10	+1.71%
GRASS	26	12W/4L	75%	n=16	+3.52%
HYPE	25	1W/5L	17%	n=6	-1.51%
ETH	24	3W/6L	33%	n=9	+0.95%
SOL	24	2W/5L	29%	n=7	-0.65%
TIA	19	4W/2L	67%	n=6	+2.88%
VIRTUAL	18	6W/4L	60%	n=10	+0.23%
ZEC	18	1W/3L	25%	n=4	-8.34%
KAITO	17	1W/3L	25%	n=4	-0.73%
LDO	16	4W/4L	50%	n=8	+4.68%
ARB	16	4W/4L	50%	n=8	+6.90%
LINK	14	2W/2L	50%	n=4	+1.17%
AVAX	14	2W/2L	50%	n=4	+0.30%
MASK	13	9W/1L	90%	n=10	+3.10%
FARTCOIN	13	2W/1L	67%	n=3	+3.90%
CC	13	1W/2L	33%	n=3	-1.16%
CRV	13	2W/4L	33%	n=6	-0.59%
SUI	12	3W/1L	75%	n=4	+3.92%
M	12	4W/0L	100%	n=4	+6.08%
NEAR	11	1W/5L	17%	n=6	-1.65%
JUP	11	1W/1L	50%	n=2	+4.00%
BTC	11	2W/1L	67%	n=3	+5.53%
PENDLE	10	1W/4L	20%	n=5	-1.60%
ADA	10	0W/3L	0%	n=3	-0.73%
IMX	9	3W/0L	100%	n=3	+5.83%
PNUT	9	1W/1L	50%	n=2	+4.77%
POPCAT	9	1W/0L	100%	n=1	+13.83%
OP	9	1W/0L	100%	n=1	+0.25%
SEI	9	0W/1L	0%	n=1	-4.85%

Conviction calibration

When the desk says conviction 70, do trades actually win 70%? This chart plots realized win rate per conviction band. Bubbles on or above the gold dashed line = well calibrated. Below = overconfident.

Conviction 50-59

57.1% WR

20W · 15L · 36N

Conviction 60-69

61.3% WR

46W · 29L · 150N

Conviction 70-79

48.5% WR

48W · 51L · 196N

Total theses

595

generated since launch

Closed

209(35%)

hit target or stop

Expired neutral

383(64%)

didn't move enough — under tuning

Recent theses

Auto-refresh every 30s

Asset	Side	Conviction	Bull / Bear	Status	Outcome	PnL	When
HBAR	SHORT	68	25 / 76	active	open	+1.52%	06-03 07:47
SOL	SHORT	52	65 / 85	active	open	-0.43%	06-02 23:46
VIRTUAL	SHORT	52	48 / 62	active	open	-0.78%	06-02 16:47
VIRTUAL	SHORT	62	45 / 65	stopped out	loss	-2.03%	06-02 08:07
HYPE	LONG	62	65 / 45	expired	neutral	-0.31%	06-01 23:33
SOL	SHORT	62	45 / 68	hit t2	win	+5.20%	06-01 23:32
SOL	SHORT	62	45 / 72	expired	neutral	+0.01%	06-01 16:33
HYPE	LONG	52	65 / 55	stopped out	loss	-3.24%	06-01 10:03
VIRTUAL	SHORT	52	45 / 65	expired	neutral	-1.16%	06-01 01:37
SOL	SHORT	62	45 / 68	expired	neutral	+0.13%	05-31 18:37
DYDX	LONG	52	65 / 55	expired	neutral	-2.30%	05-31 14:37
SOL	SHORT	62	45 / 65	partial win	win	+2.06%	05-31 09:37
PENDLE	SHORT	52	45 / 75	expired	neutral	+5.65%	05-31 04:38
VIRTUAL	SHORT	58	45 / 65	partial win	win	+2.23%	05-30 21:37
GRASS	LONG	52	65 / 55	stopped out	loss	-4.17%	05-30 14:47
JTO	LONG	52	65 / 55	expired	neutral	-4.38%	05-29 11:13
SOL	SHORT	58	45 / 65	expired	neutral	-0.04%	05-29 11:12
HYPE	LONG	52	65 / 55	expired	neutral	+0.86%	05-29 09:12
ETH	SHORT	52	45 / 72	stopped out	loss	-1.96%	05-29 08:44
SOL	SHORT	52	45 / 62	expired	neutral	+1.47%	05-29 08:42
SOL	SHORT	62	45 / 65	expired	neutral	+0.42%	05-29 07:22
SOL	SHORT	62	45 / 65	expired	neutral	+0.65%	05-29 05:41
VIRTUAL	LONG	74	78 / 25	stopped out	loss	-1.85%	05-24 13:34
VIRTUAL	LONG	74	78 / 25	expired	neutral	+0.22%	05-24 05:34
VIRTUAL	SHORT	74	25 / 78	expired	neutral	-5.87%	05-23 05:34
VIRTUAL	LONG	74	78 / 46	stopped out	loss	-4.80%	05-22 11:47
PENDLE	LONG	68	76 / 46	stopped out	loss	-3.74%	05-22 07:47
VIRTUAL	SHORT	68	46 / 78	stopped out	loss	-0.90%	05-21 15:47
PENDLE	LONG	68	76 / 46	stopped out	loss	-4.61%	05-21 03:47
VIRTUAL	SHORT	74	46 / 78	partial win	win	+2.92%	05-21 03:47
VIRTUAL	SHORT	68	46 / 78	hit t2	win	+1.18%	05-20 15:47
VIRTUAL	SHORT	68	46 / 78	expired	neutral	-1.46%	05-20 11:47
PYTH	SHORT	74	46 / 78	stopped out	loss	-0.50%	05-20 11:47
VIRTUAL	SHORT	74	46 / 78	expired	neutral	+0.44%	05-20 07:47
PENDLE	SHORT	68	46 / 76	hit t2	win	+9.39%	05-19 23:47
VIRTUAL	SHORT	68	46 / 78	hit t2	win	+1.27%	05-19 19:47
VIRTUAL	SHORT	68	46 / 78	expired	neutral	-0.56%	05-19 15:47
PYTH	SHORT	74	46 / 78	stopped out	loss	-3.76%	05-19 15:47
VIRTUAL	SHORT	68	46 / 78	expired	neutral	+0.03%	05-19 12:17
FARTCOIN	SHORT	68	46 / 76	expired	neutral	+0.32%	05-19 12:17
VIRTUAL	SHORT	62	45 / 65	partial win	win	+1.14%	05-19 05:46
VIRTUAL	SHORT	62	45 / 75	partial win	win	+3.09%	05-17 21:00
BTC	LONG	66	61 / 46	expired	neutral	-0.09%	05-12 08:35
BTC	LONG	66	61 / 46	expired	neutral	+0.14%	05-12 08:23
NEAR	LONG	74	78 / 46	stopped out	loss	-2.33%	05-12 07:09
GRASS	LONG	74	78 / 46	expired	neutral	+0.52%	05-07 08:05
JUP	LONG	64	78 / 46	expired	neutral	-4.58%	05-07 08:05
JUP	LONG	64	78 / 46	expired	neutral	-4.58%	05-07 08:00
CAKE	LONG	74	78 / 46	stopped out	loss	-1.91%	05-07 08:00
SUI	LONG	74	78 / 46	expired	neutral	-0.57%	05-07 08:00
ZEREBRO	LONG	64	78 / 46	stopped out	loss	-7.41%	05-07 08:00
DOGE	LONG	55	65 / 45	partial win	win	+5.54%	04-30 18:36
INIT	LONG	55	65 / 55	stopped out	loss	-3.03%	04-30 16:13
DOGE	LONG	55	65 / 45	expired	neutral	+0.31%	04-30 16:10
ZEREBRO	LONG	55	65 / 45	hit t2	win	+32.17%	04-30 10:36
APE	LONG	62	65 / 45	stopped out	loss	-6.62%	04-30 06:42
ZEREBRO	LONG	55	65 / 55	expired	neutral	-1.88%	04-30 04:36
FARTCOIN	LONG	55	60 / 55	hit t2	win	+13.73%	04-30 02:36
INIT	LONG	55	65 / 55	stopped out	loss	-4.45%	04-30 01:36
INIT	LONG	55	65 / 45	stopped out	loss	-4.45%	04-29 20:11

Showing 60 of 595 · pulled from production DB · no manual edits possible