Public · Live · Immutable
Public · Live · Immutable
Track record
Every thesis generated by our AI desk, publicly logged. Outcomes marked when targets hit, stops trigger, or theses expire. No retroactive edits.
See AI vs Buy-and-Hold benchmarkWin rate
all-time57.1%
▲ 212W▼ 159L— 515N
Expected value / trade
+2.33%
math: WR × avg_win + LR × avg_loss
Profit factor
2.94
gross win / gross loss
Avg win
+6.19%
212 wins · max win not capped
Avg loss
-2.81%
159 stop-outs
Live calls · progress to target
All open theses Live · 3 open calls tracked against mark price
VIRTUALlongNear targetentry 0.63600target 0.6539090% to target0% to stop+2.52%
PENDLElongOn trackentry 1.587target 1.64132% to target0% to stop+1.08%
SOLlongAt riskentry 76.704target 77.334-37% to target41% to stop-0.31%
Equity curve · cumulative PnL%
peak+633.2%·final+588.7%
Each closed thesis adds (or subtracts) its actual PnL% to the running total. Not capital-weighted.
Drawdown (from peak)
max -87.0%Distance below the running peak — pro traders care more about drawdown than ROI.
Monthly performance · since first thesis
4 months · 886 closed3 green1 redΣ +588.65%
Each cell is sum of per-trade % outcomes that closed in that calendar month (UTC). Cell intensity scales with magnitude of monthly PnL; tooltip on hover shows trade count + win rate. No retroactive edits — this is the same outcome timeline the equity curve plots, just rolled up.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Σ year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | — | — | — | +165.3544 | -28.242 | +72.8127 | +378.8173 | — | — | — | — | — | +588.65% |
Sum of per-trade % PnL in calendar month (UTC).ProfitLossFlat / no trades
By asset · where AI is good (and where it isn't)
30 assets with ≥1 closed thesis| Asset | Total | Closed | Win rate | WR bar | Avg PnL | Drill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIRTUAL | 129 | 36W/16L | 69% | n=52 | +2.11% | |
 APE | 50 | 8W/3L | 73% | n=11 | +1.51% | |
| SOL | 48 | 11W/10L | 52% | n=21 | +1.02% | |
 PYTH | 47 | 33W/11L | 75% | n=44 | +7.11% | |
| PENDLE | 43 | 2W/30L | 6% | n=32 | -2.04% | |
 INJ | 39 | 8W/7L | 53% | n=15 | +1.69% | |
 POPCAT | 32 | 20W/4L | 83% | n=24 | +5.43% | |
 GRASS | 26 | 12W/4L | 75% | n=16 | +3.52% | |
 ETH | 25 | 4W/6L | 40% | n=10 | +1.04% | |
 HYPE | 25 | 1W/5L | 17% | n=6 | -1.51% | |
 FARTCOIN | 22 | 4W/3L | 57% | n=7 | +2.89% | |
 TIA | 19 | 4W/2L | 67% | n=6 | +2.88% | |
 ZEC | 18 | 1W/3L | 25% | n=4 | -8.34% | |
 KAITO | 17 | 1W/3L | 25% | n=4 | -0.73% | |
 LDO | 16 | 4W/4L | 50% | n=8 | +4.68% | |
 CC | 16 | 1W/2L | 33% | n=3 | -1.16% | |
 ARB | 16 | 4W/4L | 50% | n=8 | +6.90% | |
 BLUR | 15 | 3W/3L | 50% | n=6 | +2.40% | |
 LINK | 14 | 2W/2L | 50% | n=4 | +1.17% | |
 AVAX | 14 | 2W/2L | 50% | n=4 | +0.30% | |
 MASK | 13 | 9W/1L | 90% | n=10 | +3.10% | |
 CRV | 13 | 2W/4L | 33% | n=6 | -0.59% | |
 M | 12 | 4W/0L | 100% | n=4 | +6.08% | |
 SUI | 12 | 3W/1L | 75% | n=4 | +3.92% | |
 BTC | 11 | 2W/1L | 67% | n=3 | +5.53% | |
 NEAR | 11 | 1W/5L | 17% | n=6 | -1.65% | |
 DOT | 11 | 1W/1L | 50% | n=2 | +1.55% | |
 JUP | 11 | 1W/1L | 50% | n=2 | +4.00% | |
 ADA | 10 | 0W/3L | 0% | n=3 | -0.73% | |
 OP | 9 | 1W/0L | 100% | n=1 | +0.25% |
Conviction calibration
When the desk says conviction 70, do trades actually win 70%? This chart plots realized win rate per conviction band. Bubbles on or above the gold dashed line = well calibrated. Below = overconfident.
Conviction 50-59
57.6% WR
34W · 25L · 57N
Conviction 60-69
59.7% WR
95W · 64L · 211N
Conviction 70-79
54.2% WR
83W · 70L · 246N
Total theses
889
generated since launch
Closed
371(42%)
hit target or stop
Expired neutral
515(58%)
didn't move enough — under tuning
Recent theses
Auto-refresh every 30s| Asset | Side | Conviction | Bull / Bear | Status | Outcome | PnL | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | active | open | — | 07-20 14:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | active | open | — | 07-20 14:09 |
| SOL | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | active | open | -0.72% | 07-20 13:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 77 / 25 | hit t1 | win | +6.11% | 07-20 06:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -2.02% | 07-20 02:09 |
| SOL | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | hit t2 | win | +1.07% | 07-19 22:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -0.70% | 07-19 15:09 |
| SOL | LONG | 68 | 72 / 29 | stopped out | loss | -0.40% | 07-19 11:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -2.92% | 07-19 01:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 77 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -1.48% | 07-18 15:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 77 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.42% | 07-18 10:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -0.88% | 07-18 05:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -0.40% | 07-18 01:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | -2.69% | 07-18 01:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | hit t2 | win | +1.43% | 07-17 22:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 68 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.55% | 07-17 19:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 68 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.21% | 07-17 16:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -2.65% | 07-17 15:09 |
| SOL | SHORT | 74 | 25 / 78 | stopped out | loss | -2.05% | 07-17 12:09 |
| PYTH | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -0.30% | 07-17 05:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | partial win | win | +3.88% | 07-17 05:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -0.40% | 07-17 04:09 |
| PYTH | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -0.99% | 07-17 00:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.55% | 07-17 00:09 |
| APE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -0.43% | 07-16 23:09 |
| PYTH | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -2.44% | 07-16 17:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -3.75% | 07-16 16:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | -1.30% | 07-16 15:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | partial win | win | +2.32% | 07-16 14:09 |
| PYTH | LONG | 68 | 78 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -1.28% | 07-16 12:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.43% | 07-16 12:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | +0.32% | 07-16 11:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -3.71% | 07-16 03:09 |
| FARTCOIN | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.47% | 07-16 01:09 |
| APE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.52% | 07-15 18:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | partial win | win | +6.15% | 07-15 16:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | partial win | win | +3.12% | 07-15 15:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | -1.41% | 07-15 14:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | -1.72% | 07-15 13:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 76 / 25 | partial win | win | +3.51% | 07-15 07:09 |
| SOL | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -0.69% | 07-15 06:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -3.63% | 07-14 23:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | +0.96% | 07-14 22:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 73 | 76 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.07% | 07-14 19:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 75 / 26 | stopped out | loss | -0.68% | 07-14 13:09 |
| APE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.10% | 07-14 02:09 |
| APE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.27% | 07-13 23:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 75 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -4.11% | 07-13 19:09 |
| VIRTUAL | SHORT | 74 | 25 / 78 | stopped out | loss | -4.90% | 07-13 13:09 |
| VIRTUAL | SHORT | 74 | 25 / 78 | expired | neutral | -0.34% | 07-13 12:09 |
| APE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | expired | neutral | +0.21% | 07-13 10:09 |
 XMR | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.77% | 07-13 09:09 |
| VIRTUAL | SHORT | 74 | 25 / 78 | expired | neutral | +0.09% | 07-13 07:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -0.40% | 07-13 06:09 |
| APE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | expired | neutral | -0.18% | 07-13 06:09 |
| APE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | expired | neutral | +0.27% | 07-13 04:09 |
| VIRTUAL | SHORT | 74 | 25 / 78 | expired | neutral | -0.02% | 07-13 02:09 |
| VIRTUAL | LONG | 74 | 78 / 25 | expired | neutral | -2.74% | 07-12 22:09 |
| PENDLE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | stopped out | loss | -2.99% | 07-12 17:09 |
| APE | LONG | 68 | 76 / 25 | expired | neutral | +0.12% | 07-12 15:09 |
Showing 60 of 889 · pulled from production DB · no manual edits possible