EGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_mnnuzllg_nn5y4a
AAVE

AAVE

 shortWIN 1-3d

Generated 57d ago · 2026-04-07T00:06:15Z · expires 2026-04-10

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/75
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.23%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.27%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed -22.99%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Ran to +1.81% at peak but closed -22.99% — gave back 24.80pts. A trailing stop would have captured more of the move.
  • Survived a -27.10% drawdown before working — the stop was wide enough to absorb noise without invalidating the thesis.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$93.22
Entry high
$93.60
Target 1
$92.34
Target 2
$91.68
Stop loss
$94.37
AAVE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
95.4889.3583.2377.170.9774.115/29 01:005/30 07:005/31 13:006/1 19:006/3 01:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
39.6
Bearish
ADX 14
36.0
Trending
ATR 14
1.99
2.61% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 84.67
Lower 72.57
inside
SMA stack
2078.62
5081.36
20089.53
TA Workspace · AAVE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

AAVE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $76.1920 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
104.1667 AAVE
$9.73K
Leverage
0.97x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 92.34
+1.11R$111.46(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 91.68
+1.80R$180.21(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 94.37
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open AAVE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX 22.0 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $94.3700; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Bear case
  • MACD histogram positive
  • Price below SMA20
  • SMA20 below SMA50
  • Candidate score 84.6 with promotion state ready.
  • Replay memory is thin for this asset/regime, so sizing remains conservative.
  • Risk engine approves low risk with 1.8:1 R:R.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
AAVE Short: Desk edge clears risk gate

AAVE is promoted by the scheduler fast path after TA, replay, and risk checks cleared the publish gate. The setup is intentionally conservative: entry is near live price, stop is volatility-adjusted, and targets follow the deterministic risk engine rather than a slow narrative model.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
AAVE
Price93.41
Timestamp1775520370149
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 43.91,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.33,
    "signal": -0.47,
    "histogram": 0.13
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 97.62,
    "middle": 94.37,
    "lower": 91.12,
    "width": 6.88
  },
  "sma20": 94.37,
  "sma50": 95.8,
  "sma200": 106.87,
  "ema12": 94.54,
  "ema26": 94.87,
  "atr14": 1.64,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 37.41,
    "d": 41.95
  },
  "adx14": 21.97,
  "obv": -18910.81538532001
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami",
    "Bullish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "AAVE",
    "timestamp": 1775520370148,
    "price": 93.41,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 36.86,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.7,
        "signal": -0.6,
        "histogram": -0.1
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 96.01,
        "middle": 94.34,
        "lower": 92.66,
        "width": 3.56
      },
      "sma20": 94.34,
      "sma50": 95.58,
      "sma200": 94.18,
      "ema12": 93.74,
      "ema26": 94.44,
      "atr14": 0.39,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 31.43,
        "d": 19.85
      },
      "adx14": 36.54,
      "obv": -1321.6759133799997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "AAVE",
    "timestamp": 1775520370148,
    "price": 93.41,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 39.45,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.22,
        "signal": 0.27,
        "histogram": -0.48
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 98.49,
        "middle": 95.69,
        "lower": 92.9,
        "width": 5.84
      },
      "sma20": 95.69,
      "sma50": 94.15,
      "sma200": 95.83,
      "ema12": 94.66,
      "ema26": 94.87,
      "atr14": 0.83,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 14.89,
        "d": 6.59
      },
      "adx14": 25.85,
      "obv": -282.77221094999976
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "AAVE",
    "timestamp": 1775520370149,
    "price": 93.41,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.91,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.33,
        "signal": -0.47,
        "histogram": 0.13
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 97.62,
        "middle": 94.37,
        "lower": 91.12,
        "width": 6.88
      },
      "sma20": 94.37,
      "sma50": 95.8,
      "sma200": 106.87,
      "ema12": 94.54,
      "ema26": 94.87,
      "atr14": 1.64,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 37.41,
        "d": 41.95
      },
      "adx14": 21.97,
      "obv": -18910.81538532001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "AAVE",
    "timestamp": 1775520370149,
    "price": 93.41,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 33.66,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -5.36,
        "signal": -4.97,
        "histogram": -0.39
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 115.68,
        "middle": 101.23,
        "lower": 86.79,
        "width": 28.54
      },
      "sma20": 101.23,
      "sma50": 109.7,
      "sma200": 170.86,
      "ema12": 96.93,
      "ema26": 102.29,
      "atr14": 5.1,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 10.56,
        "d": 10.61
      },
      "adx14": 21.93,
      "obv": -188817.5956087699
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest26097252.33
Price93.41
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss94.37
Take profit91.68
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.03
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for AAVE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread24.75
Dominant Conviction75
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction75
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to avoid AI runtime timeout.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$93.41
Funding rate
0.0025%
Open interest
$26.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
See AAVE chart with overlay More thesesAll AAVE theses