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Thesis · thesis_mno3iwxb_2fwkhg
SOL

SOL

 shortLOSS 1-3d

Generated 57d ago · 2026-04-07T04:05:13Z

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/75
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.72%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -2.72% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$79.36
Entry high
$80.11
Target 1
$77.65
Target 2
$76.36
Stop loss
$81.61
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
33.2
Bearish
ADX 14
44.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
1.74
2.32% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 85.25
Lower 72.55
inside
SMA stack
2078.90
5081.18
20086.29
PatternsDragonfly Doji
TA Workspace · SOL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SOL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $74.9690 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
53.3333 SOL
$4.25K
Leverage
0.43x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 77.65
+1.11R$111.20(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 76.36
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 81.61
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SOL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX 17.2 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $81.6150; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Bear case
  • MACD histogram negative
  • Price below SMA20
  • SMA20 below SMA50
  • Candidate score 140.1 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (latest_asset) scored 29.3, returned 12.00%, win rate 100.0%.
  • Risk engine approves low risk with 1.8:1 R:R.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
SOL Short: Desk edge clears risk gate

SOL is promoted by the scheduler fast path after TA, replay, and risk checks cleared the publish gate. The setup is intentionally conservative: entry is near live price, stop is volatility-adjusted, and targets follow the deterministic risk engine rather than a slow narrative model.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SOL
Timestamp1775534710675
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 42.25,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.01,
    "signal": -0.04,
    "histogram": 0.03
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 82.63,
    "middle": 80.76,
    "lower": 78.89,
    "width": 4.62
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 1.25,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 19.59
  },
  "adx14": 17.18,
  "obv": -366120.8030977202
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775534710674,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 36.7,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.35,
        "signal": -0.43,
        "histogram": 0.07
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 80.12,
        "middle": 79.83,
        "lower": 79.54,
        "width": 0.72
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.26,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 35.62
      },
      "adx14": 43.23,
      "obv": 9500.09800482
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775534710674,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 34.1,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.4,
        "signal": -0.09,
        "histogram": -0.31
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 83.55,
        "middle": 81.42,
        "lower": 79.29,
        "width": 5.24
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.58,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 6.92
      },
      "adx14": 24.01,
      "obv": -200742.14858660987
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775534710674,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.25,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.04,
        "histogram": 0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 82.63,
        "middle": 80.76,
        "lower": 78.89,
        "width": 4.62
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 1.25,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 19.59
      },
      "adx14": 17.18,
      "obv": -366120.8030977202
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775534710675,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.4,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -2.2,
        "signal": -1.76,
        "histogram": -0.45
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 93.33,
        "middle": 84.91,
        "lower": 76.49,
        "width": 19.83
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 4.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 16.92
      },
      "adx14": 17.15,
      "obv": -9155164.028168082
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest574670186.06
Price79.74
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.82
Leverage3
Stop loss81.61
Take profit76.36
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.35
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SOL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction75
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction75
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to avoid AI runtime timeout.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$79.74
Funding rate
-0.0345%
Open interest
$574.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
See SOL chart with overlay More thesesAll SOL theses