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Thesis · thesis_mnpluxu6_38zy6q
ARB

ARB

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 56d ago · 2026-04-08T05:26:13Z

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
65/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.04%
peak -0.01% · MAE -0.05%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -3.54%.

  • Max adverse excursion hit -4.86% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1038
Entry high
$0.1050
Target 1
$0.1091
Target 2
$0.1119
Stop loss
$0.1007
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
42.9
Bearish
ADX 14
22.9
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1100
Lower 0.0900
inside
SMA stack
200.1000
500.1000
2000.1200
TA Workspace · ARB
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ARB · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.096070 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
27,027.027 ARB
$2.82K
Leverage
0.28x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.03
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1091
+1.27R$127.03(+1.27%)
T2 hit @ 0.1119
+2.03R$202.70(+2.03%)
Stop hit @ 0.1007
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ARB on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • RSI 74.3 is elevated; pullback risk, not a standalone short
  • Price above SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Candidate score 83.9 with promotion state watch.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (latest_asset) scored 22.8, returned 9.12%, win rate 100.0%.
  • Risk engine approves medium risk with 2.0:1 R:R.
Bear case
  • ADX 28.1 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.1007; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
ARB Long: Desk edge clears risk gate

ARB is promoted by the scheduler fast path after TA, replay, and risk checks cleared the publish gate. The setup is intentionally conservative: entry is near live price, stop is volatility-adjusted, and targets follow the deterministic risk engine rather than a slow narrative model.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ARB
Timestamp1775625967465
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 71.49,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.1,
    "middle": 0.09,
    "lower": 0.09,
    "width": 13.93
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 62.83
  },
  "adx14": 28.09,
  "obv": -6948481.775169998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775625967463,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 70.29,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 3.2
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 53.79
      },
      "adx14": 63.78,
      "obv": 927384.29249
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775625967464,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 78.21,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 15.08
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 63.13
      },
      "adx14": 37.59,
      "obv": 5307734.541130002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775625967464,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 13.93
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 62.83
      },
      "adx14": 28.09,
      "obv": -6948481.775169998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775625967465,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.52,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 15.42
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 49.88
      },
      "adx14": 14.91,
      "obv": -81869660.24578999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest4156661.69
Price0.10
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.20
Leverage2
Stop loss0.10
Take profit0.11
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.59
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • RSI 71.5 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ARB; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread10
Dominant Conviction65
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction65
Bear Conviction35
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to avoid AI runtime timeout.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1044
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$4.2M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
See ARB chart with overlay More thesesAll ARB theses