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Thesis · thesis_mnq7gpcu_wez1nu
BTC

BTC

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 55d ago · 2026-04-08T15:31:01Z · expires 2026-04-11

Conviction
73/100
Bull / Bear
70/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.08%
peak +0.10% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +8.37%.

  • High conviction (73/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +9.86% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$70,853.05
Entry high
$71,487.55
Target 1
$73,137.25
Target 2
$74,342.8
Stop loss
$69,584.05
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
24.0
Oversold
ADX 14
58.2
Very strong trend
ATR 14
1092
1.64% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75936
Lower 64702
inside
SMA stack
2070319
5072703
20077358
TA Workspace · BTC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

BTC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66777.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
0.063 BTC
$4.49K
Leverage
0.45x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 73137.25
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 74342.8
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 69584.05
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • RSI 64.6 is elevated; pullback risk, not a standalone short
  • MACD histogram positive
  • Price above SMA20
  • Candidate score 91.3 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 26.0, returned 7.67%, win rate 100.0%.
  • Risk engine approves low risk with 2.0:1 R:R.
Bear case
  • ADX 34.9 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $69584.0500; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • RSI 70.2 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
BTC Long: Desk edge clears risk gate

BTC is promoted by the scheduler fast path after TA, replay, and risk checks cleared the publish gate. The setup is intentionally conservative: entry is near live price, stop is volatility-adjusted, and targets follow the deterministic risk engine rather than a slow narrative model.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
BTC
Timestamp1775662241952
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 70.17,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 950.08,
    "signal": 657.23,
    "histogram": 292.85
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 72163.83,
    "middle": 69154.6,
    "lower": 66145.38,
    "width": 8.7
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 1057.5,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 52.21
  },
  "adx14": 34.91,
  "obv": -3071.9109791200017
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775662241951,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 38.7,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -116.17,
        "signal": 2.76,
        "histogram": -118.93
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 72455.63,
        "middle": 71659.15,
        "lower": 70862.66,
        "width": 2.22
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 312.12,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 8.68
      },
      "adx14": 28.02,
      "obv": 664.0694370499996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775662241951,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.27,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 571.79,
        "signal": 670.5,
        "histogram": -98.72
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 72913.14,
        "middle": 71261.68,
        "lower": 69610.23,
        "width": 4.63
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 551.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 10.52
      },
      "adx14": 44.95,
      "obv": 1043.1736142599998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775662241952,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 70.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 950.08,
        "signal": 657.23,
        "histogram": 292.85
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 72163.83,
        "middle": 69154.6,
        "lower": 66145.38,
        "width": 8.7
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 1057.5,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 52.21
      },
      "adx14": 34.91,
      "obv": -3071.9109791200017
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775662241952,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.37,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -226.18,
        "signal": -577.05,
        "histogram": 350.87
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 72087.48,
        "middle": 68561.32,
        "lower": 65035.15,
        "width": 10.29
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 2563.72,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 48.4
      },
      "adx14": 14.5,
      "obv": -71325.37047410005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1946740748.34
Price71170.30
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.89
Leverage3
Stop loss69584.05
Take profit74342.80
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.23
Warnings
  • RSI 70.2 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for BTC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread15.25
Dominant Conviction70.25
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction70.25
Bear Conviction29.75
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to avoid AI runtime timeout.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$71,170.3
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$1946.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
See BTC chart with overlay More thesesAll BTC theses