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Thesis · thesis_mnqpubjw_r5z1x6
ETH

ETH

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 55d ago · 2026-04-09T00:05:29Z · expires 2026-04-12

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
75/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.10%
peak +0.12% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +10.00%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +12.44% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$2,183.77
Entry high
$2,195.25
Target 1
$2,225.1
Target 2
$2,246.91
Stop loss
$2,160.81
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
31.1
Bearish
ADX 14
41.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
37.62
2.02% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2076
Lower 1832
inside
SMA stack
201954
502001
2002177
PatternsBearish Marubozu
TA Workspace · ETH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ETH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1864.70 · max 25x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3.4843 ETH
$7.63K
Leverage
0.76x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2225.098
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 2246.91
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 2160.81
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ETH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • MACD histogram positive
  • Price above SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Candidate score 88.2 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 24.3, returned 5.81%, win rate 100.0%.
  • Risk engine approves low risk with 2.0:1 R:R.
Bear case
  • ADX 28.1 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $2160.8100; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
ETH Long: Desk edge clears risk gate

ETH is promoted by the scheduler fast path after TA, replay, and risk checks cleared the publish gate. The setup is intentionally conservative: entry is near live price, stop is volatility-adjusted, and targets follow the deterministic risk engine rather than a slow narrative model.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ETH
Price2189.51
Timestamp1775693120317
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 58.35,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 34.67,
    "signal": 31.95,
    "histogram": 2.73
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 2272.75,
    "middle": 2160.81,
    "lower": 2048.88,
    "width": 10.36
  },
  "sma20": 2160.81,
  "sma50": 2107.1,
  "sma200": 2098.48,
  "ema12": 2185.66,
  "ema26": 2150.98,
  "atr14": 39.71,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 60.69,
    "d": 64.28
  },
  "adx14": 28.13,
  "obv": 63745.159701240045
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji",
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775693120315,
    "price": 2189.51,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 38.19,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -8.18,
        "signal": -6.8,
        "histogram": -1.38
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2225.97,
        "middle": 2203.54,
        "lower": 2181.1,
        "width": 2.04
      },
      "sma20": 2203.54,
      "sma50": 2217.19,
      "sma200": 2168.51,
      "ema12": 2196.36,
      "ema26": 2204.54,
      "atr14": 8.8,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 21.5,
        "d": 20.91
      },
      "adx14": 28.4,
      "obv": 13436.325978470008
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775693120316,
    "price": 2189.51,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.31,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 3.36,
        "signal": 12.12,
        "histogram": -8.77
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2271.5,
        "middle": 2224.89,
        "lower": 2178.29,
        "width": 4.19
      },
      "sma20": 2224.89,
      "sma50": 2169.5,
      "sma200": 2103.91,
      "ema12": 2207.41,
      "ema26": 2204.06,
      "atr14": 19.62,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 9.96,
        "d": 8.24
      },
      "adx14": 28.27,
      "obv": 38111.94628332
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing",
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775693120316,
    "price": 2189.51,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.35,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 34.67,
        "signal": 31.95,
        "histogram": 2.73
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2272.75,
        "middle": 2160.81,
        "lower": 2048.88,
        "width": 10.36
      },
      "sma20": 2160.81,
      "sma50": 2107.1,
      "sma200": 2098.48,
      "ema12": 2185.66,
      "ema26": 2150.98,
      "atr14": 39.71,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 60.69,
        "d": 64.28
      },
      "adx14": 28.13,
      "obv": 63745.159701240045
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775693120317,
    "price": 2189.51,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.48,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 18.96,
        "signal": 3.43,
        "histogram": 15.53
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2237.08,
        "middle": 2096.11,
        "lower": 1955.14,
        "width": 13.45
      },
      "sma20": 2096.11,
      "sma50": 2063.59,
      "sma200": 2946.91,
      "ema12": 2130.42,
      "ema26": 2111.46,
      "atr14": 99.17,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 75.06,
        "d": 80.16
      },
      "adx14": 14.01,
      "obv": -661286.3443452097
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0
Open Interest0
Price2189.51
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss2160.81
Take profit2246.91
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.31
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ETH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread20.25
Dominant Conviction75
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction75
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to avoid AI runtime timeout.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$2,189.51
Funding rate
0.0000%
Open interest
$0.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
See ETH chart with overlay More thesesAll ETH theses