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Thesis · thesis_mnqyey6a_mdvacx
BTC

BTC

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 55d ago · 2026-04-09T04:05:46Z · expires 2026-04-12

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
77/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.09%
peak +0.10% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +8.68%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +10.17% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$70,790.89
Entry high
$71,150.31
Target 1
$72,084.81
Target 2
$72,767.72
Stop loss
$70,072.04
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
24.9
Oversold
ADX 14
58.2
Very strong trend
ATR 14
1080
1.61% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75915
Lower 64749
inside
SMA stack
2070332
5072708
20077359
TA Workspace · BTC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

BTC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66927.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
0.1113 BTC
$7.90K
Leverage
0.79x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 72084.8144
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 72767.72
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 70072.04
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • RSI 62.5 is elevated; pullback risk, not a standalone short
  • MACD histogram positive
  • Price above SMA20
  • Candidate score 138.6 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 17.4, returned 9.09%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 87.8.
Bear case
  • ADX 39.5 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $70072.0400; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
BTC Long: policy edge aligns with structure

BTC cleared the live desk with LONG structure, promote policy support, and a conservative risk-defined plan. Entry stays close to live price, while stop and targets remain deterministic so execution discipline is preserved if momentum fades.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
BTC
Price70970.60
Timestamp1775707520261
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 62.52,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 893.69,
    "signal": 848.75,
    "histogram": 44.94
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 72561.39,
    "middle": 70072.04,
    "lower": 67582.68,
    "width": 7.11
  },
  "sma20": 70072.04,
  "sma50": 68421.48,
  "sma200": 69383.12,
  "ema12": 70662.85,
  "ema26": 69769.16,
  "atr14": 945.78,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 63.26,
    "d": 64.31
  },
  "adx14": 39.47,
  "obv": -1879.7171925100004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji",
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775707520259,
    "price": 70970.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.09,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -73.19,
        "signal": -103.28,
        "histogram": 30.09
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 71191.6,
        "middle": 70923.38,
        "lower": 70655.16,
        "width": 0.76
      },
      "sma20": 70923.38,
      "sma50": 71228.09,
      "sma200": 70339.39,
      "ema12": 70955.69,
      "ema26": 71028.88,
      "atr14": 177.75,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 70.46,
        "d": 68.93
      },
      "adx14": 21.23,
      "obv": 823.0239143699994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775707520260,
    "price": 70970.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.08,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 79.78,
        "signal": 208.82,
        "histogram": -129.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 72026.96,
        "middle": 71326.2,
        "lower": 70625.44,
        "width": 1.96
      },
      "sma20": 71326.2,
      "sma50": 70370.32,
      "sma200": 68324.87,
      "ema12": 71123.77,
      "ema26": 71044,
      "atr14": 443.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 33.75,
        "d": 31.05
      },
      "adx14": 29.86,
      "obv": 1384.8301561800004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775707520260,
    "price": 70970.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.52,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 893.69,
        "signal": 848.75,
        "histogram": 44.94
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 72561.39,
        "middle": 70072.04,
        "lower": 67582.68,
        "width": 7.11
      },
      "sma20": 70072.04,
      "sma50": 68421.48,
      "sma200": 69383.12,
      "ema12": 70662.85,
      "ema26": 69769.16,
      "atr14": 945.78,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 63.26,
        "d": 64.31
      },
      "adx14": 39.47,
      "obv": -1879.7171925100004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775707520261,
    "price": 70970.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.95,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 134.72,
        "signal": -345.21,
        "histogram": 479.93
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 72350.26,
        "middle": 68643.92,
        "lower": 64937.58,
        "width": 10.8
      },
      "sma20": 68643.92,
      "sma50": 68857.27,
      "sma200": 88470.45,
      "ema12": 69367.31,
      "ema26": 69232.59,
      "atr14": 2431.84,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 76.18,
        "d": 81.26
      },
      "adx14": 14.71,
      "obv": -71417.62852963008
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1868745306.00
Price70970.60
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss70072.04
Take profit72767.72
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.27
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for BTC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread16.25
Dominant Conviction77.25
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction77.25
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 17.4
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score87.80
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence80.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 17.4
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 87.8.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$70,970.6
Funding rate
0.0376%
Open interest
$1868.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
See BTC chart with overlay More thesesAll BTC theses