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Thesis · thesis_mnreer1m_e4hakz
ARB

ARB

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 55d ago · 2026-04-09T11:33:31Z · expires 2026-04-12

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
69/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.28%
peak +0.34% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +28.28%.

  • High conviction (68/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +33.81% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1013
Entry high
$0.1020
Target 1
$0.1037
Target 2
$0.1050
Stop loss
$0.1000
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
42.9
Bearish
ADX 14
22.9
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1100
Lower 0.0900
inside
SMA stack
200.1000
500.1000
2000.1200
TA Workspace · ARB
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ARB · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.096070 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
60,606.0606 ARB
$6.16K
Leverage
0.62x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.03
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1037
+1.24R$124.24(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.105
+2.03R$203.03(+2.03%)
Stop hit @ 0.1
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ARB on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • Price above SMA20
  • Price above SMA200
  • TA trend bullish
  • Candidate score 101.0 with promotion state watch.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 22.8, returned 9.12%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 83.5.
Bear case
  • ADX 33.8 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.1000; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
ARB Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

ARB cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ARB
Price0.10
Timestamp1775734385885
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 59.15,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.11,
    "middle": 0.1,
    "lower": 0.09,
    "width": 14.83
  },
  "sma20": 0.1,
  "sma50": 0.1,
  "sma200": 0.1,
  "ema12": 0.1,
  "ema26": 0.1,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 65.07,
    "d": 65.24
  },
  "adx14": 33.83,
  "obv": -6158142.892470002
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775734385883,
    "price": 0.10165,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.15,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 1.24
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 46.43,
        "d": 53.57
      },
      "adx14": 9.14,
      "obv": 774575.6344400009
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775734385884,
    "price": 0.10165,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.15,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 5.26
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 16.67,
        "d": 20.18
      },
      "adx14": 15.9,
      "obv": 5916779.010550002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775734385884,
    "price": 0.10165,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.15,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 14.83
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 65.07,
        "d": 65.24
      },
      "adx14": 33.83,
      "obv": -6158142.892470002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775734385885,
    "price": 0.10165,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.44,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 18.59
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.21,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 76.72,
        "d": 89.15
      },
      "adx14": 15.41,
      "obv": -76605906.55649997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest4719429.30
Price0.10
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.10
Take profit0.10
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.62
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ARB; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread8.25
Dominant Conviction69.25
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction69.25
Bear Conviction30.75
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.8
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score83.50
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence80.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.8
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 83.5.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1017
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$4.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
See ARB chart with overlay More thesesAll ARB theses