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Thesis · thesis_mnrowrzs_en358p
BTC

BTC

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 54d ago · 2026-04-09T16:27:28Z · expires 2026-04-12

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
76/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.70%.

  • Closed -1.70% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$71,846.69
Entry high
$72,423.31
Target 1
$73,922.53
Target 2
$75,018.12
Stop loss
$70,693.44
BTC · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
75,498.1872,857.8770,217.5667,577.2564,936.9466,9505/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
24.9
Oversold
ADX 14
58.2
Very strong trend
ATR 14
1080
1.61% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75915
Lower 64749
inside
SMA stack
2070332
5072708
20077359
TA Workspace · BTC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

BTC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66927.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
0.0694 BTC
$5.00K
Leverage
0.50x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 73922.5344
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 75018.12
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 70693.44
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • RSI 70.2 is elevated; pullback risk, not a standalone short
  • MACD histogram positive
  • Price above SMA20
  • Candidate score 97.9 with promotion state watch.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (latest_asset) scored 17.4, returned 9.09%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 78.8.
Bear case
  • ADX 42.7 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $70693.4400; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • RSI 70.1 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
BTC Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

BTC cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
BTC
Price72135
Timestamp1775752011751
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 70.07,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 940.3,
    "signal": 880.04,
    "histogram": 60.26
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 73120.73,
    "middle": 70455.68,
    "lower": 67790.63,
    "width": 7.57
  },
  "sma20": 70455.68,
  "sma50": 68620.85,
  "sma200": 69440.3,
  "ema12": 71135.12,
  "ema26": 70194.81,
  "atr14": 961.04,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 86.02,
    "d": 79.55
  },
  "adx14": 42.66,
  "obv": -1194.0535467800007
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Gravestone Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775752011749,
    "price": 72135,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 72.02,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 222.68,
        "signal": 83.89,
        "histogram": 138.79
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 72206.81,
        "middle": 71290.24,
        "lower": 70373.67,
        "width": 2.57
      },
      "sma20": 71290.24,
      "sma50": 71178.51,
      "sma200": 70968.77,
      "ema12": 71597.88,
      "ema26": 71375.2,
      "atr14": 280.96,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 85.43,
        "d": 86.95
      },
      "adx14": 27.14,
      "obv": 1179.6169571899993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing",
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775752011750,
    "price": 72135,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.87,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 174.39,
        "signal": 100.28,
        "histogram": 74.11
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 71940.61,
        "middle": 71201.57,
        "lower": 70462.53,
        "width": 2.08
      },
      "sma20": 71201.57,
      "sma50": 71027.94,
      "sma200": 68506.53,
      "ema12": 71414.57,
      "ema26": 71240.18,
      "atr14": 491.27,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 85.43,
        "d": 77.6
      },
      "adx14": 22.26,
      "obv": 1515.6412138300002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775752011750,
    "price": 72135,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 70.07,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 940.3,
        "signal": 880.04,
        "histogram": 60.26
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 73120.73,
        "middle": 70455.68,
        "lower": 67790.63,
        "width": 7.57
      },
      "sma20": 70455.68,
      "sma50": 68620.85,
      "sma200": 69440.3,
      "ema12": 71135.12,
      "ema26": 70194.81,
      "atr14": 961.04,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.02,
        "d": 79.55
      },
      "adx14": 42.66,
      "obv": -1194.0535467800007
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1775752011751,
    "price": 72135,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 227.61,
        "signal": -326.63,
        "histogram": 554.24
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 72585.21,
        "middle": 68702.14,
        "lower": 64819.07,
        "width": 11.3
      },
      "sma20": 68702.14,
      "sma50": 68880.56,
      "sma200": 88476.27,
      "ema12": 69546.44,
      "ema26": 69318.84,
      "atr14": 2519.35,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 90.94,
        "d": 86.18
      },
      "adx14": 14.71,
      "obv": -70413.37713847008
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest2004413425.74
Price72135
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss70693.44
Take profit75018.12
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2
Warnings
  • RSI 70.1 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for BTC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread15.25
Dominant Conviction76.25
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76.25
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 17.4
  • LONG desk bias has 61 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score78.80
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence75
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 17.4
  • LONG desk bias has 61 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 78.8.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$72,135
Funding rate
0.0532%
Open interest
$2004.4M
Macro regime
balanced_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
See BTC chart with overlay More thesesAll BTC theses