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Thesis · thesis_mnrss2xp_f7bd39
ETH

ETH

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 54d ago · 2026-04-09T18:15:48Z · expires 2026-04-11

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
64/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +1.17%.

  • Closed +1.17% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$2,195.83
Entry high
$2,219.87
Target 1
$2,282.38
Target 2
$2,328.06
Stop loss
$2,147.75
ETH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
2,353.642,212.962,072.281,931.61,790.921,864.55/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
31.2
Bearish
ADX 14
41.1
Very strong trend
ATR 14
37.72
2.02% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2076
Lower 1832
inside
SMA stack
201954
502001
2002177
TA Workspace · ETH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ETH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1864.70 · max 25x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
1.6638 ETH
$3.67K
Leverage
0.37x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2282.3802
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 2328.06
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 2147.745
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ETH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • MACD histogram negative
  • Price above SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Candidate score 70.9 with promotion state watch.
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL replay (exact_regime) scored 12.1, returned 2.42%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 44.5.
Bear case
  • ADX 26.5 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $2147.7450; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
ETH Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

ETH cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ETH
Timestamp1775758511686
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 62.8,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 29.34,
    "signal": 30.77,
    "histogram": -1.43
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 2280.31,
    "middle": 2170.89,
    "lower": 2061.48,
    "width": 10.08
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 40.07,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 43.46
  },
  "adx14": 26.48,
  "obv": 51251.55952267998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6,
  "bearScore": 7.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775758511685,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.13,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 10.38,
        "signal": 7.23,
        "histogram": 3.15
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2237.92,
        "middle": 2194.71,
        "lower": 2151.5,
        "width": 3.94
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 12.62,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 59.73
      },
      "adx14": 22.41,
      "obv": 18627.082512450004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775758511685,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.15,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.72,
        "signal": -2.22,
        "histogram": 3.94
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2215.1,
        "middle": 2187.83,
        "lower": 2160.55,
        "width": 2.49
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 20.44,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 54.05
      },
      "adx14": 18.1,
      "obv": 36734.899748899996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775758511686,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.8,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 29.34,
        "signal": 30.77,
        "histogram": -1.43
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2280.31,
        "middle": 2170.89,
        "lower": 2061.48,
        "width": 10.08
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 40.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 43.46
      },
      "adx14": 26.48,
      "obv": 51251.55952267998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775758511686,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.56,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 14.46,
        "signal": -0.45,
        "histogram": 14.91
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2230.38,
        "middle": 2093.95,
        "lower": 1957.52,
        "width": 13.03
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 104.09,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 55.14
      },
      "adx14": 13.68,
      "obv": -661273.8486279297
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0
Open Interest0
Price2207.85
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.64
Leverage2
Stop loss2147.74
Take profit2328.06
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.72
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ETH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread12.75
Dominant Conviction63.75
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction63.75
Bear Conviction36.25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.1
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score44.50
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence48.60
Reasons
  • DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.1
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 44.5.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$2,207.85
Funding rate
0.0000%
Open interest
$0.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
size_down
Desk posture
provisional
See ETH chart with overlay More thesesAll ETH theses