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Thesis · thesis_mnsesm7d_vvjg4y
ARB

ARB

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 54d ago · 2026-04-10T04:32:04Z · expires 2026-04-11

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.74%.

  • Closed -0.74% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1101
Entry high
$0.1115
Target 1
$0.1201
Target 2
$0.1258
Stop loss
$0.1033
ARB · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.12760.11760.10750.09740.08740.09595/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
42.8
Bearish
ADX 14
22.9
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1100
Lower 0.0900
inside
SMA stack
200.1000
500.1000
2000.1200
TA Workspace · ARB
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ARB · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.095950 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
13,333.3333 ARB
$1.48K
Leverage
0.15x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1201
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.1258
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.1033
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ARB on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • RSI 72.3 is elevated; pullback risk, not a standalone short
  • Price above SMA20
  • Price above SMA200
  • Candidate score 116.0 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 29.4, returned 11.34%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX 41.3 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.1033; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
ARB Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

ARB cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ARB
Price0.11
Timestamp1775795487527
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 72.36,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.11,
    "middle": 0.1,
    "lower": 0.09,
    "width": 18.79
  },
  "sma20": 0.1,
  "sma50": 0.1,
  "sma200": 0.1,
  "ema12": 0.1,
  "ema26": 0.1,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 96.58,
    "d": 89.47
  },
  "adx14": 41.3,
  "obv": -2478844.70157
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775795487526,
    "price": 0.11081,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 72.24,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 3.02
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 85.56,
        "d": 60.62
      },
      "adx14": 38.17,
      "obv": 2440058.364000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775795487526,
    "price": 0.11081,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 76.24,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 12.27
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 95.62,
        "d": 86.51
      },
      "adx14": 42.48,
      "obv": 7697588.70847
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775795487527,
    "price": 0.11081,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 72.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 18.79
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 96.58,
        "d": 89.47
      },
      "adx14": 41.3,
      "obv": -2478844.70157
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775795487527,
    "price": 0.11081,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 25.32
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.21,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 98.45,
        "d": 94.7
      },
      "adx14": 16.85,
      "obv": -69471916.23021996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest5017932.75
Price0.11
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.10
Take profit0.13
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %6.77
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • RSI 72.4 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ARB; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 29.4
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence100
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 29.4
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1108
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$5.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
provisional
See ARB chart with overlay More thesesAll ARB theses