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Thesis · thesis_mnsmfgqf_r74g5x
LINK

LINK

 shortLOSS 1-3d

Generated 54d ago · 2026-04-10T08:05:47Z · expires 2026-04-13

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.71%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -0.71% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$8.8731
Entry high
$8.8909
Target 1
$8.8396
Target 2
$8.8136
Stop loss
$8.92
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
38.0
Bearish
ADX 14
31.1
Trending
ATR 14
0.2100
2.47% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 9.41
Lower 8.25
inside
SMA stack
208.83
509.03
2009.62
TA Workspace · LINK
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

LINK · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $8.5106 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
2,631.5789 LINK
$23.37K
Leverage
2.34x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$10.7820
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 8.8396
+1.12R$111.58(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 8.8136
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 8.92
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open LINK on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX 20.3 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $8.9200; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Bear case
  • MACD histogram negative
  • Price below SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Candidate score 95.9 with promotion state ready.
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL replay (exact_regime) scored 22.1, returned 3.94%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 91.3.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
LINK Short: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

LINK cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
LINK
Price8.88
Timestamp1775808320615
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 49.64,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.03,
    "histogram": -0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 9.3,
    "middle": 8.92,
    "lower": 8.55,
    "width": 8.37
  },
  "sma20": 8.92,
  "sma50": 8.8,
  "sma200": 8.96,
  "ema12": 8.91,
  "ema26": 8.89,
  "atr14": 0.16,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 32.5,
    "d": 31.78
  },
  "adx14": 20.25,
  "obv": -275830.76555625
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1775808320613,
    "price": 8.882,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 36.05,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 8.99,
        "middle": 8.94,
        "lower": 8.88,
        "width": 1.21
      },
      "sma20": 8.94,
      "sma50": 8.97,
      "sma200": 8.95,
      "ema12": 8.92,
      "ema26": 8.94,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.58,
        "d": 9.22
      },
      "adx14": 14.11,
      "obv": -34498.03042519999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1775808320614,
    "price": 8.882,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.61,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.09,
        "middle": 8.94,
        "lower": 8.79,
        "width": 3.29
      },
      "sma20": 8.94,
      "sma50": 8.94,
      "sma200": 8.79,
      "ema12": 8.93,
      "ema26": 8.92,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 1.01,
        "d": 4.38
      },
      "adx14": 19.68,
      "obv": 37090.52103284002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1775808320614,
    "price": 8.882,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.64,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.3,
        "middle": 8.92,
        "lower": 8.55,
        "width": 8.37
      },
      "sma20": 8.92,
      "sma50": 8.8,
      "sma200": 8.96,
      "ema12": 8.91,
      "ema26": 8.89,
      "atr14": 0.16,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 32.5,
        "d": 31.78
      },
      "adx14": 20.25,
      "obv": -275830.76555625
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1775808320615,
    "price": 8.882,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.48,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.03,
        "signal": -0.06,
        "histogram": 0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.35,
        "middle": 8.83,
        "lower": 8.31,
        "width": 11.8
      },
      "sma20": 8.83,
      "sma50": 8.92,
      "sma200": 13.02,
      "ema12": 8.87,
      "ema26": 8.9,
      "atr14": 0.43,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 56.55,
        "d": 57.92
      },
      "adx14": 9.52,
      "obv": -10412222.109625094
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest27358724.84
Price8.88
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss8.92
Take profit8.81
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.43
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for LINK; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.1
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score91.30
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence85.80
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.1
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 91.3.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$8.882
Funding rate
0.0037%
Open interest
$27.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
standard
See LINK chart with overlay More thesesAll LINK theses