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Thesis · thesis_mnt1sc3y_b80mmq
SOL

SOL

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-10T15:15:42Z · expires 2026-04-13

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.48%.

  • Closed -0.48% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$84.744
Entry high
$85.656
Target 1
$87.7445
Target 2
$89.304
Stop loss
$82.92
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
33.2
Bearish
ADX 14
44.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
1.74
2.32% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 85.25
Lower 72.55
inside
SMA stack
2078.90
5081.18
20086.29
PatternsDragonfly Doji
TA Workspace · SOL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SOL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $74.9690 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
43.8596 SOL
$3.74K
Leverage
0.37x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 87.7445
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 89.304
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 82.92
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SOL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • RSI 63.0 is elevated; pullback risk, not a standalone short
  • MACD histogram positive
  • Price above SMA20
  • Candidate score 130.4 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 29.3, returned 12.00%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX 24.5 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $82.9200; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
SOL Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

SOL cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SOL
Timestamp1775834113075
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.05,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.51,
    "signal": 0.53,
    "histogram": -0.02
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 86.22,
    "middle": 82.75,
    "lower": 79.28,
    "width": 8.38
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 1.52,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 27.14
  },
  "adx14": 24.47,
  "obv": -242692.1238799501
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775834113073,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 74.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.4,
        "signal": 0.27,
        "histogram": 0.13
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 85.07,
        "middle": 83.96,
        "lower": 82.86,
        "width": 2.63
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.36,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 56.63
      },
      "adx14": 20.04,
      "obv": -70428.34569907002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775834113074,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 68.52,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.29,
        "signal": 0.15,
        "histogram": 0.15
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 84.78,
        "middle": 83.61,
        "lower": 82.43,
        "width": 2.8
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.67,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 62.8
      },
      "adx14": 26.93,
      "obv": 304565.06878781
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775834113075,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.05,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.51,
        "signal": 0.53,
        "histogram": -0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 86.22,
        "middle": 82.75,
        "lower": 79.28,
        "width": 8.38
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 1.52,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 27.14
      },
      "adx14": 24.47,
      "obv": -242692.1238799501
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775834113075,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -1.5,
        "signal": -1.7,
        "histogram": 0.19
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 91.53,
        "middle": 84.04,
        "lower": 76.56,
        "width": 17.81
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 4.39,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 34.42
      },
      "adx14": 13.44,
      "obv": -7608384.5181119535
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest563010267.20
Price85.20
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.66
Leverage2
Stop loss82.92
Take profit89.30
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.68
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SOL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread22
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 29.3
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence98.80
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 29.3
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$85.2
Funding rate
0.0069%
Open interest
$563.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
standard
See SOL chart with overlay More thesesAll SOL theses