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Thesis · thesis_mnt427ut_lulyvi
ADA

ADA

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-10T16:19:22Z · expires 2026-04-13

Conviction
71/100
Bull / Bear
67/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.98%.

  • Closed -0.98% at conviction 71/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2544
Entry high
$0.2566
Target 1
$0.2616
Target 2
$0.2654
Stop loss
$0.2500
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.0
Bearish
ADX 14
34.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
4.64% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2400
Lower 0.2100
inside
SMA stack
200.2300
500.2300
2000.2500
TA Workspace · ADA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ADA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.215390 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
18,181.8182 ADA
$4.65K
Leverage
0.46x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2616
+1.11R$110.91(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.2654
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.25
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ADA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • Price above SMA20
  • Price below SMA200
  • TA trend bullish
  • Candidate score 78.2 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (latest_asset) scored 16.4, returned 15.34%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 66.1.
Bear case
  • ADX 18.9 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.2500; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
ADA Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

ADA cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ADA
Price0.26
Timestamp1775837695133
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.56,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.26,
    "middle": 0.25,
    "lower": 0.24,
    "width": 7.53
  },
  "sma20": 0.25,
  "sma50": 0.25,
  "sma200": 0.26,
  "ema12": 0.25,
  "ema26": 0.25,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 58.4,
    "d": 41.61
  },
  "adx14": 18.95,
  "obv": 31326408.774678852
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775837695132,
    "price": 0.2555,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.26,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 2.36
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 82.83,
        "d": 66.4
      },
      "adx14": 22.98,
      "obv": 2943483.972920501
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775837695132,
    "price": 0.2555,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.26,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 2.9
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 85.57,
        "d": 79.87
      },
      "adx14": 15.38,
      "obv": 9263269.948400825
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775837695133,
    "price": 0.2555,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.56,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.26,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.24,
        "width": 7.53
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.26,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.4,
        "d": 41.61
      },
      "adx14": 18.95,
      "obv": 31326408.774678852
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775837695133,
    "price": 0.2555,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.95,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.27,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 13.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.26,
      "sma200": 0.43,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.26,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 68.22,
        "d": 59.93
      },
      "adx14": 10.74,
      "obv": -669798090.7590848
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest12794072.93
Price0.26
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.92
Leverage3
Stop loss0.25
Take profit0.27
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.15
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ADA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread9.50
Dominant Conviction66.50
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction66.50
Bear Conviction33.50
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.4
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score66.10
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence64.60
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.4
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 66.1.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2555
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$12.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Desk posture
standard
See ADA chart with overlay More thesesAll ADA theses