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Thesis · thesis_mnt7r0e0_1hti8b
SOL

SOL

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-10T18:02:38Z · expires 2026-04-12

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
71/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.58%.

  • Closed -0.58% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$84.386
Entry high
$85.274
Target 1
$87.5828
Target 2
$89.27
Stop loss
$82.61
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
32.9
Bearish
ADX 14
44.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
1.76
2.35% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 85.26
Lower 72.53
inside
SMA stack
2078.89
5081.18
20086.29
TA Workspace · SOL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SOL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $74.8350 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
45.045 SOL
$3.82K
Leverage
0.38x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 87.5828
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 89.27
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 82.61
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SOL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • MACD histogram positive
  • Price above SMA20
  • Price above SMA200
  • Candidate score 112.6 with promotion state cooldown.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 29.3, returned 12.00%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 94.0.
Bear case
  • ADX 25.7 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $82.6100; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • This setup is running in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and the thesis should decay faster if momentum stalls.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
SOL Long: provisional edge with controlled risk

SOL cleared the desk in provisional posture: the LONG case leads on structure and replay support, but the desk still wants smaller size and faster decay if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SOL
Timestamp1775844121475
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 59.18,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.56,
    "signal": 0.54,
    "histogram": 0.02
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 86.22,
    "middle": 82.97,
    "lower": 79.71,
    "width": 7.84
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 1.48,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 36.61
  },
  "adx14": 25.7,
  "obv": -91179.23305499033
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775844121474,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.23,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.25,
        "signal": 0.29,
        "histogram": -0.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 85.29,
        "middle": 84.57,
        "lower": 83.86,
        "width": 1.69
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.35,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 26.3
      },
      "adx14": 14.23,
      "obv": -37973.03096074
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775844121474,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.61,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.36,
        "signal": 0.21,
        "histogram": 0.15
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 84.9,
        "middle": 83.64,
        "lower": 82.37,
        "width": 3.02
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.73,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 42.31
      },
      "adx14": 30.57,
      "obv": 262299.87356022
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775844121475,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.18,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.56,
        "signal": 0.54,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 86.22,
        "middle": 82.97,
        "lower": 79.71,
        "width": 7.84
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 1.48,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 36.61
      },
      "adx14": 25.7,
      "obv": -91179.23305499033
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775844121475,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -1.5,
        "signal": -1.7,
        "histogram": 0.19
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 91.53,
        "middle": 84.04,
        "lower": 76.56,
        "width": 17.81
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 4.41,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 34.42
      },
      "adx14": 13.44,
      "obv": -7608384.5181119535
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest569380677.67
Price84.83
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.69
Leverage2
Stop loss82.61
Take profit89.27
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.62
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SOL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread10
Dominant Conviction71
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction71
Bear Conviction29
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 29.3
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score94
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence94.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 29.3
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 94.0.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$84.83
Funding rate
0.0080%
Open interest
$569.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
provisional
See SOL chart with overlay More thesesAll SOL theses