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Thesis · thesis_mnt8d6zq_j61k1d
TIA

TIA

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-10T18:19:53Z · expires 2026-04-13

Conviction
70/100
Bull / Bear
68/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.15%.

  • Closed +0.15% at conviction 70/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3043
Entry high
$0.3064
Target 1
$0.3120
Target 2
$0.3161
Stop loss
$0.3000
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · noneMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
45.7
Neutral
ADX 14
24.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0200
5.23% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4100
Lower 0.3600
inside
SMA stack
200.3900
500.4100
2000.4100
TA Workspace · TIA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

TIA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.382250 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
18,691.5888 TIA
$5.71K
Leverage
0.57x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.01
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.312
+1.24R$124.30(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.3161
+2.01R$200.93(+2.01%)
Stop hit @ 0.3
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open TIA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • Price above SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Price below SMA200
  • Candidate score 71.9 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (latest_asset) scored 15.9, returned 9.49%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 55.9.
Bear case
  • ADX 25.1 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.3000; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
TIA Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

TIA cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
TIA
Price0.31
Timestamp1775845126136
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 57.81,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.32,
    "middle": 0.3,
    "lower": 0.29,
    "width": 9.36
  },
  "sma20": 0.3,
  "sma50": 0.29,
  "sma200": 0.32,
  "ema12": 0.3,
  "ema26": 0.3,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 65.92,
    "d": 54.29
  },
  "adx14": 25.08,
  "obv": 1035271.2272099998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1775845126133,
    "price": 0.30535132,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.1,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.31,
        "middle": 0.3,
        "lower": 0.3,
        "width": 1.95
      },
      "sma20": 0.3,
      "sma50": 0.3,
      "sma200": 0.3,
      "ema12": 0.3,
      "ema26": 0.3,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 44.94,
        "d": 26.84
      },
      "adx14": 18.07,
      "obv": -161906.8538899998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1775845126134,
    "price": 0.30535132,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.95,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.31,
        "middle": 0.3,
        "lower": 0.3,
        "width": 2.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.3,
      "sma50": 0.3,
      "sma200": 0.29,
      "ema12": 0.3,
      "ema26": 0.3,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 62.22,
        "d": 59.89
      },
      "adx14": 16.46,
      "obv": -698808.6227000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1775845126135,
    "price": 0.30535132,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.81,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.32,
        "middle": 0.3,
        "lower": 0.29,
        "width": 9.36
      },
      "sma20": 0.3,
      "sma50": 0.29,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.3,
      "ema26": 0.3,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 65.92,
        "d": 54.29
      },
      "adx14": 25.08,
      "obv": 1035271.2272099998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1775845126136,
    "price": 0.30535132,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.08,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.33,
        "middle": 0.3,
        "lower": 0.27,
        "width": 19.2
      },
      "sma20": 0.3,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.63,
      "ema12": 0.3,
      "ema26": 0.31,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 72.04,
        "d": 57.43
      },
      "adx14": 14.65,
      "obv": -25461230.5081
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1952065.24
Price0.31
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.30
Take profit0.32
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.75
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for TIA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread11.25
Dominant Conviction68.25
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction68.25
Bear Conviction31.75
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.9
  • LONG desk bias remains usable while confirmation builds
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score55.90
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence54.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.9
  • LONG desk bias remains usable while confirmation builds
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 55.9.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3054
Funding rate
-0.0004%
Open interest
$2.0M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Desk posture
standard
See TIA chart with overlay More thesesAll TIA theses