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Thesis · thesis_mntqljzw_ir6w3q
LINK

LINK

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-11T02:50:16Z · expires 2026-04-12

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
70/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.71%.

  • Max adverse excursion hit -0.71% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$9.0524
Entry high
$9.0736
Target 1
$9.1221
Target 2
$9.1584
Stop loss
$9.01
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
38.0
Bearish
ADX 14
31.1
Trending
ATR 14
0.2100
2.47% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 9.41
Lower 8.25
inside
SMA stack
208.83
509.03
2009.62
TA Workspace · LINK
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

LINK · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $8.5106 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
1,886.7925 LINK
$17.10K
Leverage
1.71x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$6.4130
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 9.1221
+1.12R$111.51(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 9.1584
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 9.01
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open LINK on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • MACD histogram positive
  • Price above SMA20
  • Price above SMA200
  • Candidate score 70.9 with promotion state cooldown.
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL replay (exact_regime) scored 22.1, returned 3.94%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 77.3.
Bear case
  • ADX 23.6 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $9.0100; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • This setup is running in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and the thesis should decay faster if momentum stalls.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
LINK Long: provisional edge with controlled risk

LINK cleared the desk in provisional posture: the LONG case leads on structure and replay support, but the desk still wants smaller size and faster decay if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
LINK
Price9.06
Timestamp1775875779143
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 55.72,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.06,
    "signal": 0.04,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 9.31,
    "middle": 9.01,
    "lower": 8.7,
    "width": 6.78
  },
  "sma20": 9.01,
  "sma50": 8.84,
  "sma200": 8.97,
  "ema12": 9.01,
  "ema26": 8.95,
  "atr14": 0.15,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 76.53,
    "d": 79.94
  },
  "adx14": 23.62,
  "obv": -36380.596779119944
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1775875779142,
    "price": 9.063,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.56,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.13,
        "middle": 9.08,
        "lower": 9.04,
        "width": 1.02
      },
      "sma20": 9.08,
      "sma50": 9.1,
      "sma200": 8.94,
      "ema12": 9.08,
      "ema26": 9.09,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 42.26,
        "d": 68.1
      },
      "adx14": 19.82,
      "obv": 36957.27418255997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1775875779142,
    "price": 9.063,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.04,
        "signal": 0.04,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.22,
        "middle": 9.06,
        "lower": 8.9,
        "width": 3.5
      },
      "sma20": 9.06,
      "sma50": 8.95,
      "sma200": 8.84,
      "ema12": 9.08,
      "ema26": 9.05,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 42.21,
        "d": 49.78
      },
      "adx14": 32.51,
      "obv": 122381.63774638002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1775875779143,
    "price": 9.063,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.06,
        "signal": 0.04,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.31,
        "middle": 9.01,
        "lower": 8.7,
        "width": 6.78
      },
      "sma20": 9.01,
      "sma50": 8.84,
      "sma200": 8.97,
      "ema12": 9.01,
      "ema26": 8.95,
      "atr14": 0.15,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 76.53,
        "d": 79.94
      },
      "adx14": 23.62,
      "obv": -36380.596779119944
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1775875779143,
    "price": 9.063,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.62,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.05,
        "histogram": 0.05
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.4,
        "middle": 8.86,
        "lower": 8.32,
        "width": 12.1
      },
      "sma20": 8.86,
      "sma50": 8.93,
      "sma200": 12.96,
      "ema12": 8.93,
      "ema26": 8.93,
      "atr14": 0.42,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 71.56,
        "d": 69.1
      },
      "adx14": 9.01,
      "obv": -10421272.867482236
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest28311411.14
Price9.06
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss9.01
Take profit9.16
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.58
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for LINK; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread9.25
Dominant Conviction70.25
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction70.25
Bear Conviction29.75
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.1
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score77.30
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence76.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.1
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 77.3.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$9.063
Funding rate
0.0053%
Open interest
$28.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
provisional
See LINK chart with overlay More thesesAll LINK theses