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Thesis · thesis_mntridv6_fwgucl
OP

OP

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-11T03:15:48Z · expires 2026-04-12

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
46/66
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.04% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +1.05%.

  • Closed +1.05% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1134
Entry high
$0.1148
Target 1
$0.1099
Target 2
$0.1074
Stop loss
$0.1179
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
59.0
Bullish
ADX 14
20.1
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
7.86% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1300
Lower 0.1100
inside
SMA stack
200.1200
500.1200
2000.1300
TA Workspace · OP
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

OP · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.127280 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
26,315.7895 OP
$3.00K
Leverage
0.30x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.76
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1099
+1.11R$110.53(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.1074
+1.76R$176.32(+1.76%)
Stop hit @ 0.1179
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open OP on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX 12.8 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.1178; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • This setup is running in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and the thesis should decay faster if momentum stalls.
Bear case
  • Price below SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Price below SMA200
  • Candidate score 76.7 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (latest_asset) scored 18.5, returned 9.83%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 56.9.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
OP Short: provisional edge with controlled risk

OP cleared the desk in provisional posture: the SHORT case leads on structure and replay support, but the desk still wants smaller size and faster decay if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
OP
Timestamp1775877311599
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.24,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.12,
    "middle": 0.12,
    "lower": 0.11,
    "width": 7.66
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 43.79
  },
  "adx14": 12.79,
  "obv": -3089571.6932299994
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "OP",
    "timestamp": 1775877311598,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.42,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 4.25
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 19.35
      },
      "adx14": 24.51,
      "obv": 392724.99408000015
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "OP",
    "timestamp": 1775877311598,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.46,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 3.39
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 11.97
      },
      "adx14": 16.21,
      "obv": 915332.27677
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "OP",
    "timestamp": 1775877311599,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.24,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.12,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 7.66
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 43.79
      },
      "adx14": 12.79,
      "obv": -3089571.6932299994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "OP",
    "timestamp": 1775877311599,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.85,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 15.95
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 47.85
      },
      "adx14": 26.58,
      "obv": -55368337.06795995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest5352444.91
Price0.11
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.12
Take profit0.11
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %3.29
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • ADX 12.8 indicates weak trend.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for OP; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread9
Dominant Conviction66
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction34
Bear Conviction66
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.5
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score56.90
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence57.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.5
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 56.9.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1141
Funding rate
-0.0006%
Open interest
$5.4M
Macro regime
balanced_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Desk posture
provisional
See OP chart with overlay More thesesAll OP theses