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Thesis · thesis_mnttncid_jbudqg
ADA

ADA

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-11T04:15:39Z · expires 2026-04-12

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
46/70
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.06% · MAE +0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +1.01%.

  • Closed +1.01% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2525
Entry high
$0.2540
Target 1
$0.2491
Target 2
$0.2465
Stop loss
$0.2570
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.0
Bearish
ADX 14
34.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
4.64% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2400
Lower 0.2100
inside
SMA stack
200.2300
500.2300
2000.2500
TA Workspace · ADA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ADA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.215390 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
26,666.6667 ADA
$6.75K
Leverage
0.68x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2491
+1.11R$110.67(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.2465
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.257
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ADA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX 20.9 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.2570; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • This setup is running in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and the thesis should decay faster if momentum stalls.
Bear case
  • Price above SMA20
  • Price below SMA200
  • Death-cross structure
  • Candidate score 107.5 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 32.1, returned 16.55%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
ADA Short: provisional edge with controlled risk

ADA cleared the desk in provisional posture: the SHORT case leads on structure and replay support, but the desk still wants smaller size and faster decay if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ADA
Price0.25
Timestamp1775880810132
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 51.65,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.26,
    "middle": 0.25,
    "lower": 0.25,
    "width": 5.14
  },
  "sma20": 0.25,
  "sma50": 0.25,
  "sma200": 0.26,
  "ema12": 0.25,
  "ema26": 0.25,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 41.65,
    "d": 44.13
  },
  "adx14": 20.87,
  "obv": 30691089.302615736
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Gravestone Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775880810130,
    "price": 0.2532823,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.01,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.25,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 0.87
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 27.77,
        "d": 38.64
      },
      "adx14": 17.76,
      "obv": 2987178.3409341318
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775880810131,
    "price": 0.2532823,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.26,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 3.1
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 11.72,
        "d": 20.84
      },
      "adx14": 19.35,
      "obv": 4484030.227884438
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775880810131,
    "price": 0.2532823,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.65,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.26,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 5.14
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.26,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 41.65,
        "d": 44.13
      },
      "adx14": 20.87,
      "obv": 30691089.302615736
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775880810132,
    "price": 0.2532823,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.69,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.27,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 13.46
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.26,
      "sma200": 0.42,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.26,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 61.58,
        "d": 63.31
      },
      "adx14": 10.18,
      "obv": -679880237.2518458
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest12600981.44
Price0.25
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.26
Take profit0.25
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.48
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ADA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread9.25
Dominant Conviction70.25
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction29.75
Bear Conviction70.25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 32.1
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence95.10
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 32.1
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2533
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$12.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
provisional
See ADA chart with overlay More thesesAll ADA theses