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Thesis · thesis_mntuj2o8_pt2p3h
SOL

SOL

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-11T04:40:19Z · expires 2026-04-14

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
73/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.91%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Was up +1.97% before reversing into a loss — the winner was there but never locked in. Strongest case for a breakeven/trailing stop.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -2.91% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$84.005
Entry high
$84.815
Target 1
$86.921
Target 2
$88.46
Stop loss
$82.385
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
33.2
Bearish
ADX 14
44.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
1.74
2.32% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 85.25
Lower 72.55
inside
SMA stack
2078.90
5081.18
20086.29
PatternsDragonfly Doji
TA Workspace · SOL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SOL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $74.9690 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
49.3827 SOL
$4.17K
Leverage
0.42x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 86.921
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 88.46
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 82.385
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SOL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • MACD histogram positive
  • Price above SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Candidate score 85.5 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 19.8, returned 8.53%, win rate 75.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 51.9.
Bear case
  • ADX 28.1 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $82.3850; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
SOL Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

SOL cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SOL
Timestamp1775882382377
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 57.66,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.74,
    "signal": 0.63,
    "histogram": 0.11
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 85.75,
    "middle": 83.72,
    "lower": 81.69,
    "width": 4.85
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 1.35,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 47.95
  },
  "adx14": 28.11,
  "obv": -224081.8327002397
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775882382375,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 34.28,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.09,
        "signal": -0.06,
        "histogram": -0.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 85,
        "middle": 84.69,
        "lower": 84.37,
        "width": 0.75
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.21,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 6.41
      },
      "adx14": 19.24,
      "obv": -11255.476062259995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775882382376,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.97,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.34,
        "signal": 0.42,
        "histogram": -0.08
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 85.95,
        "middle": 84.53,
        "lower": 83.11,
        "width": 3.35
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.56,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 26.14
      },
      "adx14": 35.09,
      "obv": 310253.9869678499
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775882382377,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.66,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.74,
        "signal": 0.63,
        "histogram": 0.11
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 85.75,
        "middle": 83.72,
        "lower": 81.69,
        "width": 4.85
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 1.35,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 47.95
      },
      "adx14": 28.11,
      "obv": -224081.8327002397
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775882382377,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -1.24,
        "signal": -1.6,
        "histogram": 0.37
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 91.23,
        "middle": 83.91,
        "lower": 76.59,
        "width": 17.45
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 4.15,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 47.78
      },
      "adx14": 12.78,
      "obv": -7107997.910599734
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest571895251.32
Price84.41
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.80
Leverage3
Stop loss82.39
Take profit88.46
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SOL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread15.50
Dominant Conviction72.50
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction72.50
Bear Conviction27.50
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.8
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score51.90
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence49
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.8
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 51.9.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$84.41
Funding rate
-0.0018%
Open interest
$571.9M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Desk posture
standard
See SOL chart with overlay More thesesAll SOL theses