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Thesis · thesis_mntujw6s_szquiz
BNB

BNB

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-11T04:40:57Z · expires 2026-04-14

Conviction
69/100
Bull / Bear
68/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.02%.

  • Closed +0.02% at conviction 69/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$605.8036
Entry high
$607.0164
Target 1
$609.117
Target 2
$610.7762
Stop loss
$603.9844
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
34.4
Bearish
ADX 14
27.8
Trending
ATR 14
16.15
2.55% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 736.05
Lower 623.19
inside
SMA stack
20679.62
50667.85
200653.52
TA Workspace · BNB
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

BNB · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $634.1500 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
41.2269 BNB
$25.00K
Leverage
2.50x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$485.1300
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 609.117
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 610.7762
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 603.9844
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BNB on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • MACD histogram positive
  • Price above SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Candidate score 54.4 with promotion state ready.
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL replay (exact_regime) scored 14.2, returned 3.09%, win rate 60.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 53.6.
Bear case
  • ADX 17.5 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $603.9844; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
BNB Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

BNB cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
BNB
Price606.41
Timestamp1775882421553
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 53.33,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 1.02,
    "signal": 0.94,
    "histogram": 0.08
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 613.8,
    "middle": 605.31,
    "lower": 596.83,
    "width": 2.8
  },
  "sma20": 605.31,
  "sma50": 599.77,
  "sma200": 627.59,
  "ema12": 605.09,
  "ema26": 604.07,
  "atr14": 6.07,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 63.12,
    "d": 63.32
  },
  "adx14": 17.5,
  "obv": 3499.589380000004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Harami",
    "Gravestone Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "BNB",
    "timestamp": 1775882421551,
    "price": 606.41,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.06,
        "signal": -0.06,
        "histogram": 0.12
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 607.94,
        "middle": 605.89,
        "lower": 603.84,
        "width": 0.68
      },
      "sma20": 605.89,
      "sma50": 606.95,
      "sma200": 603.86,
      "ema12": 606.44,
      "ema26": 606.39,
      "atr14": 0.85,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 61.89,
        "d": 61.89
      },
      "adx14": 18.35,
      "obv": -70.74070000000012
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "BNB",
    "timestamp": 1775882421552,
    "price": 606.41,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.96,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.74,
        "signal": 0.83,
        "histogram": -0.08
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 610.86,
        "middle": 605.68,
        "lower": 600.5,
        "width": 1.71
      },
      "sma20": 605.68,
      "sma50": 603.99,
      "sma200": 599.15,
      "ema12": 606.23,
      "ema26": 605.49,
      "atr14": 2.39,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 45.99,
        "d": 51.94
      },
      "adx14": 19.13,
      "obv": 134.47176000000007
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "BNB",
    "timestamp": 1775882421552,
    "price": 606.41,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.02,
        "signal": 0.94,
        "histogram": 0.08
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 613.8,
        "middle": 605.31,
        "lower": 596.83,
        "width": 2.8
      },
      "sma20": 605.31,
      "sma50": 599.77,
      "sma200": 627.59,
      "ema12": 605.09,
      "ema26": 604.07,
      "atr14": 6.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 63.12,
        "d": 63.32
      },
      "adx14": 17.5,
      "obv": 3499.589380000004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami",
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "BNB",
    "timestamp": 1775882421553,
    "price": 606.41,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.55,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -9.14,
        "signal": -10.56,
        "histogram": 1.42
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 643.7,
        "middle": 611.07,
        "lower": 578.43,
        "width": 10.68
      },
      "sma20": 611.07,
      "sma50": 625.76,
      "sma200": 846.85,
      "ema12": 606.65,
      "ema26": 615.78,
      "atr14": 18.39,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 66.24,
        "d": 61.62
      },
      "adx14": 15.24,
      "obv": -39933.893069999984
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest21623267.68
Price606.41
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss603.98
Take profit610.78
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for BNB; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread11.25
Dominant Conviction68.25
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction68.25
Bear Conviction31.75
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.2
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score53.60
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence59.20
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.2
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 53.6.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$606.41
Funding rate
0.0069%
Open interest
$21.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Desk posture
standard
See BNB chart with overlay More thesesAll BNB theses