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Thesis · thesis_mntvsxyt_sf5obn
ARB

ARB

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-11T05:15:59Z · expires 2026-04-13

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
46/70
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.74%.

  • Closed -0.74% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1145
Entry high
$0.1159
Target 1
$0.1092
Target 2
$0.1056
Stop loss
$0.1200
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
42.9
Bearish
ADX 14
22.9
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1100
Lower 0.0900
inside
SMA stack
200.1000
500.1000
2000.1200
TA Workspace · ARB
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ARB · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.096070 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
20,833.3333 ARB
$2.40K
Leverage
0.24x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1092
+1.25R$125.00(+1.25%)
T2 hit @ 0.1056
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.12
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ARB on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX 52.8 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.1200; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • This setup is running in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and the thesis should decay faster if momentum stalls.
Bear case
  • RSI 81.7 is elevated; pullback risk, not a standalone short
  • Price above SMA20
  • Price above SMA200
  • Candidate score 91.0 with promotion state cooldown.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 29.4, returned 11.34%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 94.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
ARB Short: provisional edge with controlled risk

ARB cleared the desk in provisional posture: the SHORT case leads on structure and replay support, but the desk still wants smaller size and faster decay if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ARB
Timestamp1775884540465
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 81.73,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.12,
    "middle": 0.11,
    "lower": 0.1,
    "width": 20.35
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 65.04
  },
  "adx14": 52.8,
  "obv": 1314353.4397099991
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775884540463,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.12,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 7.75
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 22.79
      },
      "adx14": 44.11,
      "obv": 621459.4071699991
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775884540464,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.79,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 12.05
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 50.84
      },
      "adx14": 46.57,
      "obv": 3467207.4924199996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775884540464,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 81.73,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 20.35
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 65.04
      },
      "adx14": 52.8,
      "obv": 1314353.4397099991
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1775884540465,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 70.92,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 28.25
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 62.76
      },
      "adx14": 19.58,
      "obv": -64963143.538239986
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest8796002.11
Price0.12
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.92
Leverage2
Stop loss0.12
Take profit0.11
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %4.17
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • RSI 81.7 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ARB; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread9.25
Dominant Conviction70.25
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction29.75
Bear Conviction70.25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 29.4
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score94
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence96.10
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 29.4
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 94.0.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1152
Funding rate
-0.0056%
Open interest
$8.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
provisional
See ARB chart with overlay More thesesAll ARB theses