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Thesis · thesis_mntxxv7n_z00kcv
XRP

XRP

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-11T06:15:48Z · expires 2026-04-14

Conviction
73/100
Bull / Bear
46/75
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.18%.

  • Closed -0.18% at conviction 73/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.3428
Entry high
$1.3454
Target 1
$1.3375
Target 2
$1.3335
Stop loss
$1.35
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.7
Bearish
ADX 14
40.5
Very strong trend
ATR 14
0.0200
1.62% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 1.37
Lower 1.19
inside
SMA stack
201.28
501.31
2001.38
TA Workspace · XRP
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

XRP · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1.2326 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
16,949.1525 XRP
$22.78K
Leverage
2.28x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$1.6391
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.3375
+1.12R$111.86(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 1.3335
+1.80R$179.66(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 1.35
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open XRP on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX 20.4 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $1.3500; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Bear case
  • Price below SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Price below SMA200
  • Candidate score 60.5 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (latest_asset) scored 12.5, returned 4.71%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 55.2.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
XRP Short: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

XRP cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
XRP
Price1.34
Timestamp1775888113895
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 50.36,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.38,
    "middle": 1.35,
    "lower": 1.32,
    "width": 4.1
  },
  "sma20": 1.35,
  "sma50": 1.33,
  "sma200": 1.38,
  "ema12": 1.35,
  "ema26": 1.34,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 46.33,
    "d": 60.2
  },
  "adx14": 20.43,
  "obv": 76613490.0094832
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "XRP",
    "timestamp": 1775888113894,
    "price": 1.3441,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 31.06,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.36,
        "middle": 1.35,
        "lower": 1.35,
        "width": 1
      },
      "sma20": 1.35,
      "sma50": 1.36,
      "sma200": 1.35,
      "ema12": 1.35,
      "ema26": 1.35,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0.71,
        "d": 14.64
      },
      "adx14": 30.34,
      "obv": 2743344.2369802133
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "XRP",
    "timestamp": 1775888113894,
    "price": 1.3441,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.37,
        "middle": 1.35,
        "lower": 1.34,
        "width": 1.92
      },
      "sma20": 1.35,
      "sma50": 1.35,
      "sma200": 1.33,
      "ema12": 1.35,
      "ema26": 1.35,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0.45,
        "d": 10.39
      },
      "adx14": 21.55,
      "obv": 18102272.388316035
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "XRP",
    "timestamp": 1775888113895,
    "price": 1.3441,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.38,
        "middle": 1.35,
        "lower": 1.32,
        "width": 4.1
      },
      "sma20": 1.35,
      "sma50": 1.33,
      "sma200": 1.38,
      "ema12": 1.35,
      "ema26": 1.34,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 46.33,
        "d": 60.2
      },
      "adx14": 20.43,
      "obv": 76613490.0094832
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "XRP",
    "timestamp": 1775888113895,
    "price": 1.3441,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.18,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.02,
        "signal": -0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.42,
        "middle": 1.35,
        "lower": 1.28,
        "width": 10.07
      },
      "sma20": 1.35,
      "sma50": 1.38,
      "sma200": 1.94,
      "ema12": 1.35,
      "ema26": 1.36,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 55.63,
        "d": 60.14
      },
      "adx14": 14.44,
      "obv": -808068100.2503628
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest192926933.70
Price1.34
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss1.35
Take profit1.33
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.44
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for XRP; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread18.25
Dominant Conviction75.25
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction75.25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.5
  • SHORT desk bias has 73 confidence
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score55.20
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence52.20
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.5
  • SHORT desk bias has 73 confidence
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 55.2.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.3441
Funding rate
-0.0007%
Open interest
$192.9M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Desk posture
standard
See XRP chart with overlay More thesesAll XRP theses