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Thesis · thesis_mntyfipq_58cwyg
SUI

SUI

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-11T06:29:31Z · expires 2026-04-13

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
72/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.04%.

  • Closed +0.04% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.9261
Entry high
$0.9373
Target 1
$0.9689
Target 2
$0.9917
Stop loss
$0.9017
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
37.3
Bearish
ADX 14
39.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
3.62% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.9200
Lower 0.8000
inside
SMA stack
200.8600
500.9100
2001.03
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · SUI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SUI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.830440 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,333.3333 SUI
$3.11K
Leverage
0.31x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.9689
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.9917
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.9017
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SUI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • Price above SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Price above SMA200
  • Candidate score 103.5 with promotion state watch.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 22.8, returned 5.51%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 83.5.
Bear case
  • ADX 32.3 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.9017; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • This setup is running in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and the thesis should decay faster if momentum stalls.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
SUI Long: provisional edge with controlled risk

SUI cleared the desk in provisional posture: the LONG case leads on structure and replay support, but the desk still wants smaller size and faster decay if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SUI
Timestamp1775888935214
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.43,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.97,
    "middle": 0.93,
    "lower": 0.9,
    "width": 6.88
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 38.88
  },
  "adx14": 32.28,
  "obv": -170326.50500000367
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775888935212,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 33.31,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.94,
        "middle": 0.94,
        "lower": 0.93,
        "width": 1.35
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 3.41
      },
      "adx14": 28.96,
      "obv": 500543.1880900006
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775888935213,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.2,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.96,
        "middle": 0.94,
        "lower": 0.93,
        "width": 3.23
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 4.35
      },
      "adx14": 31.14,
      "obv": 4699466.322070002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775888935213,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.43,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.97,
        "middle": 0.93,
        "lower": 0.9,
        "width": 6.88
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 38.88
      },
      "adx14": 32.28,
      "obv": -170326.50500000367
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775888935214,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.98,
        "middle": 0.9,
        "lower": 0.82,
        "width": 17.15
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 49.27
      },
      "adx14": 14.15,
      "obv": -226237434.68697977
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest60748616.35
Price0.93
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.39
Leverage2
Stop loss0.90
Take profit0.99
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.22
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SUI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread10.50
Dominant Conviction71.50
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction71.50
Bear Conviction28.50
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.8
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score83.50
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence80.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.8
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 83.5.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.9317
Funding rate
-0.0019%
Open interest
$60.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
provisional
See SUI chart with overlay More thesesAll SUI theses