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Thesis · thesis_mnu2yglq_xflbm1
XRP

XRP

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 53d ago · 2026-04-11T08:36:14Z · expires 2026-04-13

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
46/67
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.17%.

  • Closed +0.17% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.3422
Entry high
$1.3542
Target 1
$1.3147
Target 2
$1.2942
Stop loss
$1.3782
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.7
Bearish
ADX 14
40.5
Very strong trend
ATR 14
0.0200
1.62% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 1.37
Lower 1.19
inside
SMA stack
201.28
501.31
2001.38
TA Workspace · XRP
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

XRP · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1.2323 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,333.3333 XRP
$4.49K
Leverage
0.45x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.3147
+1.12R$111.67(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 1.2942
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 1.3782
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open XRP on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX 20.4 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $1.3782; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • This setup is running in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and the thesis should decay faster if momentum stalls.
Bear case
  • Price below SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Price below SMA200
  • Candidate score 55.5 with promotion state cooldown.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (latest_asset) scored 12.5, returned 4.71%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 45.2.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
XRP Short: provisional edge with controlled risk

XRP cleared the desk in provisional posture: the SHORT case leads on structure and replay support, but the desk still wants smaller size and faster decay if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
XRP
Timestamp1775896537592
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 51.59,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.38,
    "middle": 1.35,
    "lower": 1.32,
    "width": 4.08
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 37.75
  },
  "adx14": 20.4,
  "obv": 77376836.58722165
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "XRP",
    "timestamp": 1775896537591,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.2,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.35,
        "middle": 1.35,
        "lower": 1.34,
        "width": 0.69
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 34.19
      },
      "adx14": 34.46,
      "obv": 2667595.9420251036
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "XRP",
    "timestamp": 1775896537591,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.88,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.37,
        "middle": 1.35,
        "lower": 1.34,
        "width": 1.76
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 6.07
      },
      "adx14": 18.75,
      "obv": 19242089.634354122
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "XRP",
    "timestamp": 1775896537592,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.38,
        "middle": 1.35,
        "lower": 1.32,
        "width": 4.08
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 37.75
      },
      "adx14": 20.4,
      "obv": 77376836.58722165
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "XRP",
    "timestamp": 1775896537592,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.35,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.02,
        "signal": -0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.42,
        "middle": 1.35,
        "lower": 1.28,
        "width": 10.31
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 41.6
      },
      "adx14": 14.44,
      "obv": -806055846.7854779
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest193077604.38
Price1.35
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.89
Leverage3
Stop loss1.38
Take profit1.29
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.23
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for XRP; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread15.75
Dominant Conviction66.75
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction33.25
Bear Conviction66.75
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.5
  • SHORT desk bias has 63 confidence
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score45.20
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence45.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.5
  • SHORT desk bias has 63 confidence
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 45.2.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.3482
Funding rate
-0.0014%
Open interest
$193.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Desk posture
provisional
See XRP chart with overlay More thesesAll XRP theses