EGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_mnuh85b5_8t5qh1
ADA

ADA

 shortLOSS 1-3d

Generated 52d ago · 2026-04-11T15:15:40Z · expires 2026-04-14

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.01%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -1.01% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2471
Entry high
$0.2481
Target 1
$0.2449
Target 2
$0.2433
Stop loss
$0.2500
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.0
Bearish
ADX 14
34.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
4.64% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2400
Lower 0.2100
inside
SMA stack
200.2300
500.2300
2000.2500
TA Workspace · ADA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ADA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.215390 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
41,666.6667 ADA
$10.32K
Leverage
1.03x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.367600
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.79
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2449
+1.12R$112.50(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.2433
+1.79R$179.17(+1.79%)
Stop hit @ 0.25
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ADA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX 18.3 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.2500; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Bear case
  • Price below SMA20
  • Price below SMA200
  • TA trend bearish
  • Candidate score 111.5 with promotion state ready.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 32.1, returned 16.55%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
ADA Short: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

ADA cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ADA
Price0.25
Timestamp1775920459128
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 43.06,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.26,
    "middle": 0.25,
    "lower": 0.25,
    "width": 4.28
  },
  "sma20": 0.25,
  "sma50": 0.25,
  "sma200": 0.26,
  "ema12": 0.25,
  "ema26": 0.25,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 12.52,
    "d": 15.7
  },
  "adx14": 18.27,
  "obv": 25444365.188246794
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775920459127,
    "price": 0.2476,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 28.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.25,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 1.43
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 39.15,
        "d": 38.14
      },
      "adx14": 37.02,
      "obv": 1885364.3356979324
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775920459128,
    "price": 0.2476,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 30.05,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.26,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 4.11
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 20.03,
        "d": 16.59
      },
      "adx14": 21.11,
      "obv": 3401511.7068754295
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775920459128,
    "price": 0.2476,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.06,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.26,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 4.28
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.26,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 12.52,
        "d": 15.7
      },
      "adx14": 18.27,
      "obv": 25444365.188246794
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775920459128,
    "price": 0.2476,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.63,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.27,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 13.51
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.26,
      "sma200": 0.42,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 44.57,
        "d": 57.64
      },
      "adx14": 10.6,
      "obv": -683368678.0434242
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest12837972.48
Price0.25
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.25
Take profit0.24
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.97
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ADA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 32.1
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence95.10
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 32.1
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2476
Funding rate
-0.0144%
Open interest
$12.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
standard
See ADA chart with overlay More thesesAll ADA theses