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Thesis · thesis_mnuj208c_3np7si
BNB

BNB

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 52d ago · 2026-04-11T16:06:53Z · expires 2026-04-14

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
68/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +1.17%.

  • High conviction (68/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +1.17% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$605.877
Entry high
$607.09
Target 1
$609.1908
Target 2
$610.8502
Stop loss
$604.0575
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
34.6
Bearish
ADX 14
27.8
Trending
ATR 14
16.16
2.55% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 735.96
Lower 623.36
inside
SMA stack
20679.66
50667.87
200653.53
TA Workspace · BNB
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

BNB · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $631.3000 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
41.2201 BNB
$25.00K
Leverage
2.50x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$485.1835
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 609.1908
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 610.8502
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 604.0575
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BNB on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • MACD momentum is still expanding on the upside.
  • Price is still holding above the 20-period moving average.
  • The short-term trend stack remains constructive, with the 20-period average above the 50-period average.
  • Candidate quality is 59.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 14.2, returned 3.09%, win rate 60.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 51.6.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 17.0, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $604.0575, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
BNB Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

BNB cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
BNB
Price606.48
Timestamp1775923514128
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 53.4,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 1,
    "signal": 0.96,
    "histogram": 0.04
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 609.84,
    "middle": 604.25,
    "lower": 598.65,
    "width": 1.85
  },
  "sma20": 604.25,
  "sma50": 600.92,
  "sma200": 627.32,
  "ema12": 605.47,
  "ema26": 604.47,
  "atr14": 5.35,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 63.14,
    "d": 59.94
  },
  "adx14": 17.03,
  "obv": 3232.0433000000035
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Marubozu",
    "Dragonfly Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "BNB",
    "timestamp": 1775923514126,
    "price": 606.4834747,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.78,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.16,
        "histogram": 0.16
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 606.94,
        "middle": 605.48,
        "lower": 604.02,
        "width": 0.48
      },
      "sma20": 605.48,
      "sma50": 605.92,
      "sma200": 604.98,
      "ema12": 605.7,
      "ema26": 605.7,
      "atr14": 0.76,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 77.14,
        "d": 66.93
      },
      "adx14": 12.58,
      "obv": 331.7014
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu",
        "Dragonfly Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "BNB",
    "timestamp": 1775923514127,
    "price": 606.4834747,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.91,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.21,
        "signal": 0.35,
        "histogram": -0.13
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 607.61,
        "middle": 606.13,
        "lower": 604.66,
        "width": 0.49
      },
      "sma20": 606.13,
      "sma50": 605.16,
      "sma200": 600.4,
      "ema12": 606.01,
      "ema26": 605.8,
      "atr14": 1.9,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 59.16,
        "d": 45.44
      },
      "adx14": 13.47,
      "obv": 65.03826000000014
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu",
        "Dragonfly Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "BNB",
    "timestamp": 1775923514127,
    "price": 606.4834747,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.4,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1,
        "signal": 0.96,
        "histogram": 0.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 609.84,
        "middle": 604.25,
        "lower": 598.65,
        "width": 1.85
      },
      "sma20": 604.25,
      "sma50": 600.92,
      "sma200": 627.32,
      "ema12": 605.47,
      "ema26": 604.47,
      "atr14": 5.35,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 63.14,
        "d": 59.94
      },
      "adx14": 17.03,
      "obv": 3232.0433000000035
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu",
        "Dragonfly Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "BNB",
    "timestamp": 1775923514128,
    "price": 606.4834747,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.58,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -9.13,
        "signal": -10.56,
        "histogram": 1.43
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 643.7,
        "middle": 611.07,
        "lower": 578.44,
        "width": 10.68
      },
      "sma20": 611.07,
      "sma50": 625.76,
      "sma200": 846.85,
      "ema12": 606.66,
      "ema26": 615.79,
      "atr14": 18.39,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 66.38,
        "d": 61.67
      },
      "adx14": 15.24,
      "obv": -39790.753999999986
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest21668597.80
Price606.48
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss604.06
Take profit610.85
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for BNB; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread10.50
Dominant Conviction67.50
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction67.50
Bear Conviction32.50
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_watch_directional at 33.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.2
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score51.60
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence57.90
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.2
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 51.6.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$606.4835
Funding rate
0.0000%
Open interest
$21.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Desk posture
standard
See BNB chart with overlay More thesesAll BNB theses