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Thesis · thesis_mnulj0zy_km4y94
SUI

SUI

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 52d ago · 2026-04-11T17:16:06Z · expires 2026-04-14

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.05%.

  • Closed -1.05% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.9408
Entry high
$0.9462
Target 1
$0.9602
Target 2
$0.9705
Stop loss
$0.9300
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
37.4
Bearish
ADX 14
39.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
3.62% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.9200
Lower 0.8000
inside
SMA stack
200.8600
500.9100
2001.03
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · SUI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SUI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.828330 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
7,407.4074 SUI
$6.99K
Leverage
0.70x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.9602
+1.24R$123.70(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.9705
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.93
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SUI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • Price is still holding above the 20-period moving average.
  • The short-term trend stack remains constructive, with the 20-period average above the 50-period average.
  • Price is still holding above the 200-period trend anchor.
  • Candidate quality is 103.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 22.8, returned 5.51%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 91.5.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 32.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.9300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
SUI Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

SUI cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SUI
Price0.94
Timestamp1775927730559
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 58.56,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.96,
    "middle": 0.93,
    "lower": 0.91,
    "width": 5.54
  },
  "sma20": 0.93,
  "sma50": 0.9,
  "sma200": 0.93,
  "ema12": 0.94,
  "ema26": 0.93,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 59.1,
    "d": 50.98
  },
  "adx14": 32.49,
  "obv": -2391718.720410003
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775927730558,
    "price": 0.9435,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.95,
        "middle": 0.94,
        "lower": 0.93,
        "width": 2.1
      },
      "sma20": 0.94,
      "sma50": 0.93,
      "sma200": 0.94,
      "ema12": 0.94,
      "ema26": 0.94,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 64.47,
        "d": 76.54
      },
      "adx14": 21.22,
      "obv": 565443.5202400003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775927730558,
    "price": 0.9435,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.99,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.95,
        "middle": 0.94,
        "lower": 0.93,
        "width": 2.04
      },
      "sma20": 0.94,
      "sma50": 0.94,
      "sma200": 0.9,
      "ema12": 0.94,
      "ema26": 0.94,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 69.3,
        "d": 69.46
      },
      "adx14": 21.91,
      "obv": 4134223.337500001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775927730559,
    "price": 0.9435,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.56,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.96,
        "middle": 0.93,
        "lower": 0.91,
        "width": 5.54
      },
      "sma20": 0.93,
      "sma50": 0.9,
      "sma200": 0.93,
      "ema12": 0.94,
      "ema26": 0.93,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 59.1,
        "d": 50.98
      },
      "adx14": 32.49,
      "obv": -2391718.720410003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775927730559,
    "price": 0.9435,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.83,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.98,
        "middle": 0.9,
        "lower": 0.82,
        "width": 17.61
      },
      "sma20": 0.9,
      "sma50": 0.93,
      "sma200": 1.64,
      "ema12": 0.91,
      "ema26": 0.92,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 77.48,
        "d": 75.1
      },
      "adx14": 14.15,
      "obv": -227587051.67266977
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest61418585.49
Price0.94
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.93
Take profit0.97
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.43
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SUI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_promote at 32.
  • FredAI promote state
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.8
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score91.50
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence86.10
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.8
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 91.5.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.9435
Funding rate
0.0009%
Open interest
$61.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
standard
See SUI chart with overlay More thesesAll SUI theses