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Thesis · thesis_mnuw88p8_ph3f98
ETH

ETH

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 52d ago · 2026-04-11T22:15:38Z · expires 2026-04-14

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -3.32%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -3.32% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$2,293.51
Entry high
$2,315.37
Target 1
$2,372.18
Target 2
$2,413.7
Stop loss
$2,249.81
ETH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
2,443.562,279.332,115.11,950.871,786.641,871.35/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
32.0
Bearish
ADX 14
41.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
37.31
1.99% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2075
Lower 1833
inside
SMA stack
201954
502001
2002177
TA Workspace · ETH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ETH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1871.20 · max 25x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
1.8305 ETH
$4.22K
Leverage
0.42x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2372.1812
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 2413.7
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 2249.81
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ETH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • RSI near 69.2 is elevated, which raises pullback risk without creating a clean standalone short.
  • MACD momentum is still expanding on the upside.
  • Price is still holding above the 20-period moving average.
  • Candidate quality is 150.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 24.7, returned 6.84%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 91.5.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 38.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $2249.8100, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • RSI 72.9 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
ETH Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

ETH cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ETH
Timestamp1775945711686
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 72.91,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 31.79,
    "signal": 27.39,
    "histogram": 4.4
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 2286.17,
    "middle": 2218.93,
    "lower": 2151.69,
    "width": 6.06
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 36.42,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 61.53
  },
  "adx14": 37.98,
  "obv": 48775.425839790034
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775945711685,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.75,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 11.97,
        "signal": 13.92,
        "histogram": -1.95
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2336.35,
        "middle": 2292.64,
        "lower": 2248.93,
        "width": 3.81
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 9.09,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 36.35
      },
      "adx14": 42.38,
      "obv": 8066.035314249995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775945711685,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.19,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 17.9,
        "signal": 12.13,
        "histogram": 5.76
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2307.89,
        "middle": 2256.17,
        "lower": 2204.44,
        "width": 4.59
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 16.17,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 45.98
      },
      "adx14": 42.46,
      "obv": 61343.48068
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775945711686,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 72.91,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 31.79,
        "signal": 27.39,
        "histogram": 4.4
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2286.17,
        "middle": 2218.93,
        "lower": 2151.69,
        "width": 6.06
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 36.42,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 61.53
      },
      "adx14": 37.98,
      "obv": 48775.425839790034
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1775945711686,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.2,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 26.77,
        "signal": 8.1,
        "histogram": 18.67
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2259.32,
        "middle": 2104.14,
        "lower": 1948.95,
        "width": 14.75
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 103.37,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 55.62
      },
      "adx14": 15.31,
      "obv": -593324.2475438998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0
Open Interest0
Price2304.44
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.81
Leverage3
Stop loss2249.81
Take profit2413.70
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.37
Warnings
  • RSI 72.9 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ETH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.7
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score91.50
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence86.10
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.7
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 91.5.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$2,304.44
Funding rate
0.0000%
Open interest
$0.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
standard
See ETH chart with overlay More thesesAll ETH theses