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Thesis · thesis_mnv4sx7n_77aymp
ADA

ADA

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 52d ago · 2026-04-12T02:15:41Z · expires 2026-04-15

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.03% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +1.05%.

  • Closed +1.05% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2436
Entry high
$0.2451
Target 1
$0.2401
Target 2
$0.2376
Stop loss
$0.2481
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.0
Bearish
ADX 14
34.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
4.64% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2400
Lower 0.2100
inside
SMA stack
200.2300
500.2300
2000.2500
TA Workspace · ADA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ADA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.215390 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
26,666.6667 ADA
$6.52K
Leverage
0.65x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2401
+1.13R$113.33(+1.13%)
T2 hit @ 0.2376
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.2481
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ADA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 16.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.2480, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Bear case
  • Price is still trading below the 20-period moving average.
  • Price is still trading below the 200-period trend anchor.
  • The broader TA trend still reads bearish.
  • Candidate quality is 88.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 16.4, returned 15.34%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 83.1.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
ADA Short: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

ADA cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ADA
Price0.24
Timestamp1775960110142
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 40.51,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.26,
    "middle": 0.25,
    "lower": 0.25,
    "width": 4.72
  },
  "sma20": 0.25,
  "sma50": 0.25,
  "sma200": 0.26,
  "ema12": 0.25,
  "ema26": 0.25,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 9.73,
    "d": 30.2
  },
  "adx14": 16.8,
  "obv": 20646217.63257538
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "below_lower",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775960110140,
    "price": 0.2443,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 24.41,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.25,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.24,
        "width": 3.93
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 20.32,
        "d": 16.08
      },
      "adx14": 28.57,
      "obv": -4120364.3304786007
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775960110141,
    "price": 0.2443,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 32.08,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.25,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 3.81
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 14,
        "d": 24.07
      },
      "adx14": 19.87,
      "obv": 1995270.0984475384
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775960110141,
    "price": 0.2443,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.51,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.26,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 4.72
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.26,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 9.73,
        "d": 30.2
      },
      "adx14": 16.8,
      "obv": 20646217.63257538
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1775960110142,
    "price": 0.2443,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.27,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 13.1
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.26,
      "sma200": 0.42,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 31.72,
        "d": 48.87
      },
      "adx14": 10.78,
      "obv": -665766525.0052098
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest11841585.23
Price0.24
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.25
Take profit0.24
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.53
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ADA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.4
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score83.10
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence75.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.4
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 83.1.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2443
Funding rate
-0.0115%
Open interest
$11.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Desk posture
standard
See ADA chart with overlay More thesesAll ADA theses