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Thesis · thesis_mnvddkmb_jyu6ke
SOL

SOL

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 52d ago · 2026-04-12T06:15:41Z · expires 2026-04-15

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.21%.

  • Closed -0.21% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$82.08
Entry high
$82.64
Target 1
$80.624
Target 2
$79.56
Stop loss
$83.76
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
32.9
Bearish
ADX 14
44.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
1.76
2.35% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 85.26
Lower 72.53
inside
SMA stack
2078.89
5081.18
20086.29
TA Workspace · SOL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SOL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $74.8350 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
71.4286 SOL
$5.88K
Leverage
0.59x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 80.624
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 79.56
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 83.76
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SOL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 26.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $83.7600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Bear case
  • MACD momentum is still leaning to the downside.
  • Price is still trading below the 20-period moving average.
  • The short-term trend stack remains constructive, with the 20-period average above the 50-period average.
  • Candidate quality is 112.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 14.8, returned 13.94%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 51.9.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
SOL Short: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

SOL cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SOL
Price82.36
Timestamp1775974510920
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 44.23,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.38,
    "signal": 0.62,
    "histogram": -0.24
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 86.03,
    "middle": 83.76,
    "lower": 81.49,
    "width": 5.42
  },
  "sma20": 83.76,
  "sma50": 82.35,
  "sma200": 85.87,
  "ema12": 83.88,
  "ema26": 83.51,
  "atr14": 1.4,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 10.55,
    "d": 28.37
  },
  "adx14": 26.75,
  "obv": -482227.32946364
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775974510918,
    "price": 82.36,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 31.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.54,
        "signal": -0.61,
        "histogram": 0.07
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 83.64,
        "middle": 82.59,
        "lower": 81.54,
        "width": 2.54
      },
      "sma20": 82.59,
      "sma50": 84.21,
      "sma200": 84.29,
      "ema12": 82.5,
      "ema26": 83.04,
      "atr14": 0.28,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 31.88,
        "d": 31.42
      },
      "adx14": 46.31,
      "obv": 14692.863619370019
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775974510919,
    "price": 82.36,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 32.97,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.54,
        "signal": -0.22,
        "histogram": -0.33
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 86.67,
        "middle": 84.19,
        "lower": 81.7,
        "width": 5.91
      },
      "sma20": 84.19,
      "sma50": 84.27,
      "sma200": 82.29,
      "ema12": 83.37,
      "ema26": 83.91,
      "atr14": 0.66,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 10.55,
        "d": 10.4
      },
      "adx14": 30.86,
      "obv": 239918.63005328996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775974510919,
    "price": 82.36,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.23,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.38,
        "signal": 0.62,
        "histogram": -0.24
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 86.03,
        "middle": 83.76,
        "lower": 81.49,
        "width": 5.42
      },
      "sma20": 83.76,
      "sma50": 82.35,
      "sma200": 85.87,
      "ema12": 83.88,
      "ema26": 83.51,
      "atr14": 1.4,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 10.55,
        "d": 28.37
      },
      "adx14": 26.75,
      "obv": -482227.32946364
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1775974510920,
    "price": 82.36,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.97,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -1.02,
        "signal": -1.39,
        "histogram": 0.37
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 89.79,
        "middle": 83.39,
        "lower": 77,
        "width": 15.34
      },
      "sma20": 83.39,
      "sma50": 85.43,
      "sma200": 130.56,
      "ema12": 83.3,
      "ema26": 84.31,
      "atr14": 4.19,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 54.74,
        "d": 71.12
      },
      "adx14": 12.38,
      "obv": -6463918.91174331
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest513762842.62
Price82.36
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss83.76
Take profit79.56
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.70
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SOL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.8
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score51.90
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence49
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.8
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 51.9.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$82.36
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$513.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Desk posture
standard
See SOL chart with overlay More thesesAll SOL theses