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Thesis · thesis_mnxfz6ac_e35zei
NEAR

NEAR

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-13T17:04:03Z · expires 2026-04-15

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -2.71%.

  • Closed -2.71% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.3832
Entry high
$1.3948
Target 1
$1.425
Target 2
$1.447
Stop loss
$1.36
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
69.2
Bullish
ADX 14
27.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.1600
5.37% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2.99
Lower 2.11
inside
SMA stack
202.55
502.50
2001.87
TA Workspace · NEAR
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

NEAR · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $2.9848 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,448.2759 NEAR
$4.79K
Leverage
0.48x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.425
+1.24R$124.14(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1.447
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 1.36
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open NEAR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 68.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 19.4, returned 9.98%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 56.4.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 36.3, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $1.3600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
NEAR Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. NEAR cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
NEAR
Price1.39
Timestamp1776099650129
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 59.42,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.41,
    "middle": 1.36,
    "lower": 1.32,
    "width": 6.41
  },
  "sma20": 1.36,
  "sma50": 1.33,
  "sma200": 1.29,
  "ema12": 1.37,
  "ema26": 1.36,
  "atr14": 0.03,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 62.38,
    "d": 55.12
  },
  "adx14": 36.27,
  "obv": 3433692.74568086
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776099650127,
    "price": 1.389,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.27,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.4,
        "middle": 1.39,
        "lower": 1.37,
        "width": 2.7
      },
      "sma20": 1.39,
      "sma50": 1.38,
      "sma200": 1.37,
      "ema12": 1.39,
      "ema26": 1.38,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 52.5,
        "d": 52.5
      },
      "adx14": 15.78,
      "obv": -258796.70832624994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776099650128,
    "price": 1.389,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.81,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.41,
        "middle": 1.38,
        "lower": 1.35,
        "width": 4.39
      },
      "sma20": 1.38,
      "sma50": 1.37,
      "sma200": 1.33,
      "ema12": 1.38,
      "ema26": 1.37,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 66.67,
        "d": 59.65
      },
      "adx14": 26.57,
      "obv": 1300892.8569703111
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776099650128,
    "price": 1.389,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.42,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.41,
        "middle": 1.36,
        "lower": 1.32,
        "width": 6.41
      },
      "sma20": 1.36,
      "sma50": 1.33,
      "sma200": 1.29,
      "ema12": 1.37,
      "ema26": 1.36,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 62.38,
        "d": 55.12
      },
      "adx14": 36.27,
      "obv": 3433692.74568086
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776099650129,
    "price": 1.389,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.81,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.42,
        "middle": 1.26,
        "lower": 1.1,
        "width": 25.81
      },
      "sma20": 1.26,
      "sma50": 1.26,
      "sma200": 1.71,
      "ema12": 1.32,
      "ema26": 1.29,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.76,
        "d": 83.61
      },
      "adx14": 24.74,
      "obv": -3872059.6615279536
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest38588628.75
Price1.39
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.96
Leverage3
Stop loss1.36
Take profit1.45
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.09
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for NEAR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked NEAR mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score56.40
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence59.80
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 56.4.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked NEAR mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score8.20
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.389
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$38.6M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See NEAR chart with overlay More thesesAll NEAR theses