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Thesis · thesis_mnxm92rs_41vxuj
BTC

BTC

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-13T20:00:14Z · expires 2026-04-16

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +1.09%.

  • Closed +1.09% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$73,147
Entry high
$73,654.2
Target 1
$74,972.94
Target 2
$75,936.64
Stop loss
$72,132.58
BTC · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
76,462.6273,569.7270,676.8267,783.9264,891.0266,9505/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
24.9
Oversold
ADX 14
58.2
Very strong trend
ATR 14
1080
1.61% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75915
Lower 64749
inside
SMA stack
2070332
5072708
20077359
TA Workspace · BTC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

BTC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66927.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
0.0789 BTC
$5.79K
Leverage
0.58x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 74972.9448
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 75936.64
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 72132.58
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 152.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 26.0, returned 7.67%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 32.3, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $72132.5800, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating.

Final thesis
BTC Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating. BTC cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
BTC
Price73400.60
Timestamp1776110223969
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 64.29,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 148.09,
    "signal": 190.88,
    "histogram": -42.79
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 74075.73,
    "middle": 72132.58,
    "lower": 70189.43,
    "width": 5.39
  },
  "sma20": 72132.58,
  "sma50": 71007.87,
  "sma200": 69871.66,
  "ema12": 71786.03,
  "ema26": 71637.94,
  "atr14": 886.27,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 87.83,
    "d": 47.66
  },
  "adx14": 32.27,
  "obv": -3040.8674364100007
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1776110223967,
    "price": 73400.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 78.03,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 382.45,
        "signal": 319.16,
        "histogram": 63.29
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 73093.81,
        "middle": 72354.01,
        "lower": 71614.21,
        "width": 2.04
      },
      "sma20": 72354.01,
      "sma50": 71559.94,
      "sma200": 71643.5,
      "ema12": 72607.15,
      "ema26": 72224.7,
      "atr14": 280.44,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 92.99,
        "d": 92.27
      },
      "adx14": 35.66,
      "obv": 159.17746999000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1776110223968,
    "price": 73400.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 73.12,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 328.54,
        "signal": 73.69,
        "histogram": 254.86
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 72897.34,
        "middle": 71432.85,
        "lower": 69968.36,
        "width": 4.1
      },
      "sma20": 71432.85,
      "sma50": 71655.23,
      "sma200": 70959.79,
      "ema12": 71991.71,
      "ema26": 71663.17,
      "atr14": 497.15,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 96.61,
        "d": 88.85
      },
      "adx14": 36.17,
      "obv": 3414.6443606
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1776110223968,
    "price": 73400.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.29,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 148.09,
        "signal": 190.88,
        "histogram": -42.79
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 74075.73,
        "middle": 72132.58,
        "lower": 70189.43,
        "width": 5.39
      },
      "sma20": 72132.58,
      "sma50": 71007.87,
      "sma200": 69871.66,
      "ema12": 71786.03,
      "ema26": 71637.94,
      "atr14": 886.27,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 87.83,
        "d": 47.66
      },
      "adx14": 32.27,
      "obv": -3040.8674364100007
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1776110223969,
    "price": 73400.6,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.88,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 822.85,
        "signal": 264.71,
        "histogram": 558.15
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 74208.06,
        "middle": 69286.64,
        "lower": 64365.22,
        "width": 14.21
      },
      "sma20": 69286.64,
      "sma50": 69267.07,
      "sma200": 87690.06,
      "ema12": 70976.99,
      "ema26": 70154.13,
      "atr14": 2484.45,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 95.08,
        "d": 83.05
      },
      "adx14": 15.07,
      "obv": -65869.51005348007
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest2092722326.80
Price73400.60
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss72132.58
Take profit75936.64
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.73
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for BTC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_promote at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence93.20
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-0.70
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score75.10
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$73,400.6
Funding rate
0.0098%
Open interest
$2092.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See BTC chart with overlay More thesesAll BTC theses