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Thesis · thesis_mnxoghwr_jdjx4k
CAKE

CAKE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-13T21:01:29Z · expires 2026-04-16

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.90%.

  • Closed -0.90% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.5681
Entry high
$1.5801
Target 1
$1.6113
Target 2
$1.6341
Stop loss
$1.5441
CAKE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
1.65061.55961.46871.37771.28671.335/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
37.4
Bearish
ADX 14
29.3
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
2.25% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 1.53
Lower 1.29
inside
SMA stack
201.41
501.40
2001.47
TA Workspace · CAKE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

CAKE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1.3321 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,333.3333 CAKE
$5.25K
Leverage
0.52x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.6113
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1.6341
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 1.5441
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open CAKE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 138.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (exact regime) scored 16.5, returned 9.06%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 25.9, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $1.5441, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
CAKE Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. CAKE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
CAKE
Price1.57
Timestamp1776113886135
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 69.84,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.56,
    "middle": 1.5,
    "lower": 1.43,
    "width": 8.85
  },
  "sma20": 1.5,
  "sma50": 1.48,
  "sma200": 1.42,
  "ema12": 1.51,
  "ema26": 1.5,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 80.76,
    "d": 85.72
  },
  "adx14": 25.9,
  "obv": 130952.39639999997
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1776113886133,
    "price": 1.5741,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.08,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.62,
        "middle": 1.57,
        "lower": 1.51,
        "width": 7.19
      },
      "sma20": 1.57,
      "sma50": 1.52,
      "sma200": 1.49,
      "ema12": 1.58,
      "ema26": 1.56,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 47.36,
        "d": 74.62
      },
      "adx14": 63.59,
      "obv": 62784.00367
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1776113886134,
    "price": 1.5741,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 75.86,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.58,
        "middle": 1.51,
        "lower": 1.44,
        "width": 9.11
      },
      "sma20": 1.51,
      "sma50": 1.49,
      "sma200": 1.48,
      "ema12": 1.54,
      "ema26": 1.51,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 74.64,
        "d": 85.18
      },
      "adx14": 42.4,
      "obv": 65681.09597000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1776113886134,
    "price": 1.5741,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.56,
        "middle": 1.5,
        "lower": 1.43,
        "width": 8.85
      },
      "sma20": 1.5,
      "sma50": 1.48,
      "sma200": 1.42,
      "ema12": 1.51,
      "ema26": 1.5,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80.76,
        "d": 85.72
      },
      "adx14": 25.9,
      "obv": 130952.39639999997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1776113886135,
    "price": 1.5741,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.91,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.56,
        "middle": 1.43,
        "lower": 1.3,
        "width": 18.1
      },
      "sma20": 1.43,
      "sma50": 1.39,
      "sma200": 2.01,
      "ema12": 1.47,
      "ema26": 1.44,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 90.24,
        "d": 81.09
      },
      "adx14": 21.07,
      "obv": -1498081.968919999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1560598.16
Price1.57
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss1.54
Take profit1.63
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.91
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for CAKE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_promote at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution still needs more reset time before the desk fully trusts it again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.5
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91.80
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.5
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution still needs more reset time before the desk fully trusts it again.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score57.80
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.5741
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$1.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See CAKE chart with overlay More thesesAll CAKE theses