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Thesis · thesis_mnxoll3m_yapy4v
ZEC

ZEC

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-13T21:05:31Z · expires 2026-04-15

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak +0.04% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -3.33%.

  • Closed -3.33% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$360.202
Entry high
$364.058
Target 1
$374.0836
Target 2
$381.41
Stop loss
$352.49
ZEC · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
661.94580.89499.85418.8337.75611.995/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
60.9
Bullish
ADX 14
28.3
Trending
ATR 14
30.56
5.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 623.77
Lower 519.83
inside
SMA stack
20571.80
50557.68
200550.27
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · ZEC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ZEC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $611.7500 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
10.3734 ZEC
$3.76K
Leverage
0.38x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 374.0836
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 381.41
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 352.49
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ZEC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 71.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • SMA CROSS replay (exact regime) scored 36.1, returned 41.45%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 78.1.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 37.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $352.4900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ZEC Long: selective command with guarded risk

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. ZEC cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ZEC
Price362.13
Timestamp1776114181117
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 54.16,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 6.81,
    "signal": 10.79,
    "histogram": -3.98
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 382.48,
    "middle": 367.49,
    "lower": 352.49,
    "width": 8.16
  },
  "sma20": 367.49,
  "sma50": 329.39,
  "sma200": 256.42,
  "ema12": 362.66,
  "ema26": 355.85,
  "atr14": 13.34,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 50.85,
    "d": 41.51
  },
  "adx14": 37.12,
  "obv": 167508.78760451003
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776114181115,
    "price": 362.13,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.27,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.34,
        "signal": 0.4,
        "histogram": 0.95
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 366.43,
        "middle": 357.16,
        "lower": 347.9,
        "width": 5.19
      },
      "sma20": 357.16,
      "sma50": 359.33,
      "sma200": 364.13,
      "ema12": 360.42,
      "ema26": 359.07,
      "atr14": 3.16,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 62.4,
        "d": 68.55
      },
      "adx14": 22.71,
      "obv": -7213.057481229999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776114181116,
    "price": 362.13,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.26,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -1.51,
        "signal": -1.77,
        "histogram": 0.26
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 371.53,
        "middle": 361.5,
        "lower": 351.48,
        "width": 5.55
      },
      "sma20": 361.5,
      "sma50": 364.15,
      "sma200": 326.95,
      "ema12": 360.28,
      "ema26": 361.79,
      "atr14": 6.6,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 71.02,
        "d": 59.42
      },
      "adx14": 11.59,
      "obv": 117240.60929449993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776114181116,
    "price": 362.13,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 6.81,
        "signal": 10.79,
        "histogram": -3.98
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 382.48,
        "middle": 367.49,
        "lower": 352.49,
        "width": 8.16
      },
      "sma20": 367.49,
      "sma50": 329.39,
      "sma200": 256.42,
      "ema12": 362.66,
      "ema26": 355.85,
      "atr14": 13.34,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 50.85,
        "d": 41.51
      },
      "adx14": 37.12,
      "obv": 167508.78760451003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776114181117,
    "price": 362.13,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 72.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 35.19,
        "signal": 22.54,
        "histogram": 12.65
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 396.16,
        "middle": 276.5,
        "lower": 156.85,
        "width": 86.55
      },
      "sma20": 276.5,
      "sma50": 247.05,
      "sma200": 338.49,
      "ema12": 321.89,
      "ema26": 286.71,
      "atr14": 28.18,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 81.19,
        "d": 83.71
      },
      "adx14": 35.17,
      "obv": 2361520.5259286966
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest108691075.31
Price362.13
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.67
Leverage2
Stop loss352.49
Take profit381.41
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.66
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ZEC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score78.10
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence71.80
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 78.1.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score3
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score22.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$362.13
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$108.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See ZEC chart with overlay More thesesAll ZEC theses