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Thesis · thesis_mnxqlxfx_ppyo1n
SUI

SUI

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-13T22:03:49Z · expires 2026-04-15

Conviction
58/100
Bull / Bear
58/42
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.10%
peak +0.14% · MAE +0.02%
R:R
2.3:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +9.63%.

  • Planned at 2.3:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.9050
Entry high
$0.9200
Target 1
$0.9500
Target 2
$0.9800
Stop loss
$0.8850
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
37.4
Bearish
ADX 14
39.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
3.62% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.9200
Lower 0.8000
inside
SMA stack
200.8600
500.9100
2001.03
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · SUI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SUI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.828330 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,636.3636 SUI
$3.32K
Leverage
0.33x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.45
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.95
+1.36R$136.36(+1.36%)
T2 hit @ 0.98
+2.45R$245.45(+2.45%)
Stop hit @ 0.885
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SUI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • MACD bullish cross with RSI neutral at 54.15, leaving room for upside
  • Strong bull composite score (8/10) and desk bias long (1.60)
  • Replay regime exact match (disinflation_range_bull_lowvol) shows 100% win rate for RSI_PULLBACK strategy
Bear case
  • Death cross (SMA20 < SMA50) signals underlying weakness
  • ML prediction bearish with only 47.72% bullish probability
  • ADX at 20.95 indicates weak trend strength, suggesting range-bound action
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
SUI Long: Bullish MACD Cross + Exact Regime Match Targets $0.95

SUI presents a moderate-conviction long setup targeting $0.95-$0.98 on a pullback to the $0.905-$0.92 entry zone. The trade hinges on the exact replay regime match and bullish MACD cross, but must overcome the death cross signal and weak trend strength. Stop at $0.885 provides 2.3:1 risk-reward.

Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.92
Take profit0.95
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: The operation was aborted due to timeout
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SUI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread18
Dominant Conviction63.60
Threshold8
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction63.60
Bear Conviction45.60
Notes
  • FredAI policy promoted the long case.
  • Strategy commander only mildly leaned short by 3.0.
  • Historical lane quality forces a more cautious debate balance.
  • TA composite leans bullish.
  • Multi-timeframe TA is aligned on the long side.
  • Trend structure supports the bull case.
  • Trend structure supports the bear case.
  • Exact-regime replay supports the long case.
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score98.90
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence90.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.8
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 98.9.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score11.60
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.9293
Funding rate
0.0077%
Open interest
$13.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
full
See SUI chart with overlay More thesesAll SUI theses