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Thesis · thesis_mnxqoi1a_qegcie
SUI

SUI

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-13T22:03:45Z · expires 2026-04-15

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.47%.

  • Closed +0.47% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.9274
Entry high
$0.9312
Target 1
$0.9397
Target 2
$0.9460
Stop loss
$0.9200
SUI · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.95380.91110.86840.82580.78310.82765/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
37.4
Bearish
ADX 14
39.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
3.62% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.9200
Lower 0.8000
inside
SMA stack
200.8600
500.9100
2001.03
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · SUI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SUI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.828330 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
10,752.6882 SUI
$9.99K
Leverage
1.00x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.9397
+1.12R$111.83(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.946
+1.80R$179.57(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.92
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SUI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 32.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 22.8, returned 5.51%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 98.9.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 20.9, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.9200, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
SUI Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. SUI cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SUI
Price0.93
Timestamp1776117679261
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 54.15,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.96,
    "middle": 0.92,
    "lower": 0.89,
    "width": 8.15
  },
  "sma20": 0.92,
  "sma50": 0.92,
  "sma200": 0.93,
  "ema12": 0.92,
  "ema26": 0.92,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 48.04,
    "d": 43.45
  },
  "adx14": 20.95,
  "obv": -8030024.647590001
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776117679260,
    "price": 0.9293,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.91,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.94,
        "middle": 0.93,
        "lower": 0.91,
        "width": 2.7
      },
      "sma20": 0.93,
      "sma50": 0.92,
      "sma200": 0.91,
      "ema12": 0.93,
      "ema26": 0.92,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 60.09,
        "d": 65.34
      },
      "adx14": 30.1,
      "obv": -798649.4202700001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776117679260,
    "price": 0.9293,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.37,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.93,
        "middle": 0.91,
        "lower": 0.89,
        "width": 4.66
      },
      "sma20": 0.91,
      "sma50": 0.91,
      "sma200": 0.91,
      "ema12": 0.92,
      "ema26": 0.92,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 78.64,
        "d": 84.76
      },
      "adx14": 26.42,
      "obv": 4772113.121200001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776117679261,
    "price": 0.9293,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.15,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.96,
        "middle": 0.92,
        "lower": 0.89,
        "width": 8.15
      },
      "sma20": 0.92,
      "sma50": 0.92,
      "sma200": 0.93,
      "ema12": 0.92,
      "ema26": 0.92,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 48.04,
        "d": 43.45
      },
      "adx14": 20.95,
      "obv": -8030024.647590001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776117679261,
    "price": 0.9293,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.47,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.97,
        "middle": 0.9,
        "lower": 0.83,
        "width": 16.25
      },
      "sma20": 0.9,
      "sma50": 0.93,
      "sma200": 1.61,
      "ema12": 0.92,
      "ema26": 0.92,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 64.35,
        "d": 61.76
      },
      "adx14": 12.67,
      "obv": -227179922.3808598
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest13550929.29
Price0.93
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.92
Take profit0.95
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SUI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread22
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.8
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score98.90
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence90.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.8
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 98.9.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score11.60
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.9293
Funding rate
0.0077%
Open interest
$13.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See SUI chart with overlay More thesesAll SUI theses