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Thesis · thesis_mnxqro2t_nkhstb
VVV

VVV

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-13T22:06:05Z · expires 2026-04-15

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
76/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -2.50%.

  • Closed -2.50% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$9.0963
Entry high
$9.2062
Target 1
$9.9325
Target 2
$10.4113
Stop loss
$8.5213
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
64.4
Bullish
ADX 14
19.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
1.22
5.89% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 20.62
Lower 16.68
above upper
SMA stack
2018.65
5017.36
20015.14
TA Workspace · VVV
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

VVV · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $20.7300 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
158.7428 VVV
$1.45K
Leverage
0.15x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 9.9325
+1.24R$124.02(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 10.4113
+2.00R$200.02(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 8.5213
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open VVV on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 95.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 21.1, returned 17.00%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 53.6.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 43.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $8.5213, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
VVV Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. VVV cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
VVV
Price9.15
Timestamp1776117815175
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 72.59,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.31,
    "signal": 0.25,
    "histogram": 0.05
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 8.98,
    "middle": 8.2,
    "lower": 7.42,
    "width": 19
  },
  "sma20": 8.2,
  "sma50": 7.55,
  "sma200": 6.55,
  "ema12": 8.37,
  "ema26": 8.06,
  "atr14": 0.42,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 97.55,
    "d": 72.36
  },
  "adx14": 43.81,
  "obv": 328129.73065000004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "VVV",
    "timestamp": 1776117815173,
    "price": 9.1512575,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.83,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.1,
        "signal": 0.07,
        "histogram": 0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.04,
        "middle": 8.78,
        "lower": 8.52,
        "width": 5.92
      },
      "sma20": 8.78,
      "sma50": 8.62,
      "sma200": 8.23,
      "ema12": 8.86,
      "ema26": 8.76,
      "atr14": 0.11,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 93.96,
        "d": 90.69
      },
      "adx14": 26.87,
      "obv": 27283.44588999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "VVV",
    "timestamp": 1776117815173,
    "price": 9.1512575,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.31,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.21,
        "signal": 0.16,
        "histogram": 0.05
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.13,
        "middle": 8.46,
        "lower": 7.79,
        "width": 15.78
      },
      "sma20": 8.46,
      "sma50": 8.24,
      "sma200": 7.54,
      "ema12": 8.69,
      "ema26": 8.48,
      "atr14": 0.23,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 96.63,
        "d": 76.29
      },
      "adx14": 32.41,
      "obv": 96640.73519
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "VVV",
    "timestamp": 1776117815174,
    "price": 9.1512575,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 72.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.31,
        "signal": 0.25,
        "histogram": 0.05
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 8.98,
        "middle": 8.2,
        "lower": 7.42,
        "width": 19
      },
      "sma20": 8.2,
      "sma50": 7.55,
      "sma200": 6.55,
      "ema12": 8.37,
      "ema26": 8.06,
      "atr14": 0.42,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 97.55,
        "d": 72.36
      },
      "adx14": 43.81,
      "obv": 328129.73065000004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "VVV",
    "timestamp": 1776117815175,
    "price": 9.1512575,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.88,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.66,
        "signal": 0.49,
        "histogram": 0.16
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 8.66,
        "middle": 7.01,
        "lower": 5.35,
        "width": 47.19
      },
      "sma20": 7.01,
      "sma50": 6.19,
      "sma200": 2.97,
      "ema12": 7.61,
      "ema26": 6.95,
      "atr14": 0.83,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 98.84,
        "d": 85.04
      },
      "adx14": 50.95,
      "obv": 2348716.9761300003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest17744909.13
Price9.15
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss8.52
Take profit10.41
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %6.88
Warnings
  • RSI 72.6 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for VVV; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Desk recently hit execution or model errors on VVV; rotation cooldown is active.
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score53.60
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence57.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 53.6.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently hit execution or model errors on VVV; rotation cooldown is active.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score17.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$9.1513
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$17.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See VVV chart with overlay More thesesAll VVV theses