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Thesis · thesis_mnxsola4_yc8ttm
VVV

VVV

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-13T22:59:49Z · expires 2026-04-15

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.07%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.07%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -7.05%.

  • Was up +2.39% before reversing into a loss — the winner was there but never locked in. Strongest case for a breakeven/trailing stop.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -7.05% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$8.8773
Entry high
$8.9844
Target 1
$9.712
Target 2
$10.1908
Stop loss
$8.3008
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
63.3
Bullish
ADX 14
19.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
1.22
5.93% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 20.58
Lower 16.70
inside
SMA stack
2018.64
5017.35
20015.14
TA Workspace · VVV
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

VVV · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $20.7300 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
158.7176 VVV
$1.42K
Leverage
0.14x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 9.712
+1.24R$123.98(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 10.1908
+2.00R$199.98(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 8.3008
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open VVV on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 93.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 21.1, returned 17.00%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 57.5.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 43.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $8.3008, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
VVV Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. VVV cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
VVV
Price8.93
Timestamp1776121021162
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 70.09,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.29,
    "signal": 0.25,
    "histogram": 0.04
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 8.91,
    "middle": 8.19,
    "lower": 7.46,
    "width": 17.81
  },
  "sma20": 8.19,
  "sma50": 7.55,
  "sma200": 6.55,
  "ema12": 8.33,
  "ema26": 8.05,
  "atr14": 0.42,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 80.39,
    "d": 66.64
  },
  "adx14": 43.84,
  "obv": 359202.04737000004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "VVV",
    "timestamp": 1776121021161,
    "price": 8.93083851,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.2,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.11,
        "signal": 0.1,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.18,
        "middle": 8.85,
        "lower": 8.52,
        "width": 7.48
      },
      "sma20": 8.85,
      "sma50": 8.68,
      "sma200": 8.24,
      "ema12": 8.95,
      "ema26": 8.84,
      "atr14": 0.12,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 53.17,
        "d": 68.4
      },
      "adx14": 30.11,
      "obv": 8833.509779999995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "VVV",
    "timestamp": 1776121021161,
    "price": 8.93083851,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.21,
        "signal": 0.17,
        "histogram": 0.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.15,
        "middle": 8.5,
        "lower": 7.85,
        "width": 15.26
      },
      "sma20": 8.5,
      "sma50": 8.24,
      "sma200": 7.54,
      "ema12": 8.71,
      "ema26": 8.5,
      "atr14": 0.24,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 72.35,
        "d": 79.02
      },
      "adx14": 33.11,
      "obv": 71288.22802000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "VVV",
    "timestamp": 1776121021162,
    "price": 8.93083851,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 70.09,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.29,
        "signal": 0.25,
        "histogram": 0.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 8.91,
        "middle": 8.19,
        "lower": 7.46,
        "width": 17.81
      },
      "sma20": 8.19,
      "sma50": 7.55,
      "sma200": 6.55,
      "ema12": 8.33,
      "ema26": 8.05,
      "atr14": 0.42,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80.39,
        "d": 66.64
      },
      "adx14": 43.84,
      "obv": 359202.04737000004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "VVV",
    "timestamp": 1776121021162,
    "price": 8.93083851,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 70.71,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.64,
        "signal": 0.49,
        "histogram": 0.15
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 8.59,
        "middle": 6.99,
        "lower": 5.4,
        "width": 45.68
      },
      "sma20": 6.99,
      "sma50": 6.18,
      "sma200": 2.97,
      "ema12": 7.57,
      "ema26": 6.94,
      "atr14": 0.83,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 90.62,
        "d": 82.3
      },
      "adx14": 50.97,
      "obv": 2379789.2928500003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest17286453.60
Price8.93
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss8.30
Take profit10.19
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %7.05
Warnings
  • RSI 70.1 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for VVV; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Desk recently published VVV; rotation cooldown is active so newer candidates can surface.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score57.50
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence60.50
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 57.5.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently published VVV; rotation cooldown is active so newer candidates can surface.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score17.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$8.9308
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$17.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See VVV chart with overlay More thesesAll VVV theses