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Thesis · thesis_mnxwyxn6_1syqnp
HYPE

HYPE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-14T00:59:43Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.20%.

  • Closed -0.20% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$44.3811
Entry high
$44.9169
Target 1
$46.7508
Target 2
$48.039
Stop loss
$42.954
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
58.2
Bullish
ADX 14
31.7
Trending
ATR 14
2.77
3.81% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75.30
Lower 68.24
inside
SMA stack
2071.77
5066.33
20051.59
TA Workspace · HYPE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

HYPE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $72.6360 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
58.9971 HYPE
$2.63K
Leverage
0.26x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 46.7508
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 48.039
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 42.954
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open HYPE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 112.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (latest asset) scored 18.4, returned 17.44%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 93.7.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 39.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $42.9540, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • RSI 72.6 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
HYPE Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. HYPE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
HYPE
Price44.65
Timestamp1776128208207
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 72.57,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 1.01,
    "signal": 0.79,
    "histogram": 0.22
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 44.31,
    "middle": 42.02,
    "lower": 39.73,
    "width": 10.9
  },
  "sma20": 42.02,
  "sma50": 39.88,
  "sma200": 38.65,
  "ema12": 42.59,
  "ema26": 41.58,
  "atr14": 1.13,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 68.56,
    "d": 62.02
  },
  "adx14": 39.14,
  "obv": 1310051.1573909603
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776128208206,
    "price": 44.649,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.38,
        "signal": 0.36,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45,
        "middle": 44.08,
        "lower": 43.15,
        "width": 4.21
      },
      "sma20": 44.08,
      "sma50": 43.38,
      "sma200": 41.73,
      "ema12": 44.39,
      "ema26": 44.02,
      "atr14": 0.33,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80.64,
        "d": 86.4
      },
      "adx14": 57.13,
      "obv": 67607.70325153998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776128208207,
    "price": 44.649,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 74.21,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.79,
        "signal": 0.6,
        "histogram": 0.19
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45,
        "middle": 42.74,
        "lower": 40.49,
        "width": 10.56
      },
      "sma20": 42.74,
      "sma50": 41.74,
      "sma200": 39.7,
      "ema12": 43.57,
      "ema26": 42.79,
      "atr14": 0.67,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 60.25,
        "d": 58.5
      },
      "adx14": 45.04,
      "obv": 317427.09348216007
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776128208207,
    "price": 44.649,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 72.57,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.01,
        "signal": 0.79,
        "histogram": 0.22
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 44.31,
        "middle": 42.02,
        "lower": 39.73,
        "width": 10.9
      },
      "sma20": 42.02,
      "sma50": 39.88,
      "sma200": 38.65,
      "ema12": 42.59,
      "ema26": 41.58,
      "atr14": 1.13,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 68.56,
        "d": 62.02
      },
      "adx14": 39.14,
      "obv": 1310051.1573909603
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776128208207,
    "price": 44.649,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.48,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.71,
        "signal": 1.06,
        "histogram": 0.65
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 44.18,
        "middle": 38.78,
        "lower": 33.37,
        "width": 27.87
      },
      "sma20": 38.78,
      "sma50": 36.41,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 40.73,
      "ema26": 39.02,
      "atr14": 2.36,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 83.37,
        "d": 79.36
      },
      "adx14": 25.55,
      "obv": 273458.5062732495
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest928362123.95
Price44.65
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.10
Leverage2
Stop loss42.95
Take profit48.04
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.80
Warnings
  • RSI 72.6 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for HYPE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_promote at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked HYPE mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).
  • FredAI promote state
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score93.70
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence87.40
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 93.7.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked HYPE mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score33.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$44.649
Funding rate
-0.0046%
Open interest
$928.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See HYPE chart with overlay More thesesAll HYPE theses