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Thesis · thesis_mny3p25j_ftmair
ETH

ETH

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-14T04:08:32Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.08%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.56%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -7.92% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$2,353.48
Entry high
$2,377.74
Target 1
$2,440.79
Target 2
$2,486.87
Stop loss
$2,304.98
ETH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
2,520.392,336.042,151.691,967.331,782.981,871.35/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
32.0
Bearish
ADX 14
41.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
37.31
1.99% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2075
Lower 1833
inside
SMA stack
201954
502001
2002177
TA Workspace · ETH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ETH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1871.20 · max 25x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
1.6493 ETH
$3.90K
Leverage
0.39x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2440.7912
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 2486.87
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 2304.98
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ETH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 87.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (latest asset) scored 19.7, returned 11.78%, win rate 55.6%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 88.2.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 31.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $2304.9800, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • RSI 71.6 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy lab confidence is usable. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ETH Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy lab confidence is usable. Strategy command is defensive. ETH cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ETH
Timestamp1776139523385
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 71.56,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 25.96,
    "signal": 13.05,
    "histogram": 12.91
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 2349.25,
    "middle": 2240.68,
    "lower": 2132.12,
    "width": 9.69
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 40.42,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 58.4
  },
  "adx14": 31.45,
  "obv": 52546.210499099994
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776139523384,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.19,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 19.33,
        "signal": 24.59,
        "histogram": -5.26
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2381.79,
        "middle": 2368.96,
        "lower": 2356.12,
        "width": 1.08
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 9.42,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 35.88
      },
      "adx14": 56.11,
      "obv": 16992.02035859
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776139523384,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 77.87,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 43.21,
        "signal": 28.63,
        "histogram": 14.58
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2404.41,
        "middle": 2262.5,
        "lower": 2120.58,
        "width": 12.55
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 22.18,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 57.62
      },
      "adx14": 41.81,
      "obv": 64655.48561642001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776139523385,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.56,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 25.96,
        "signal": 13.05,
        "histogram": 12.91
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2349.25,
        "middle": 2240.68,
        "lower": 2132.12,
        "width": 9.69
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 40.42,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 58.4
      },
      "adx14": 31.45,
      "obv": 52546.210499099994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776139523385,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.06,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 47.99,
        "signal": 23.9,
        "histogram": 24.09
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2334.41,
        "middle": 2128.43,
        "lower": 1922.46,
        "width": 19.36
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 105.96,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 51.33
      },
      "adx14": 17.73,
      "obv": -533471.2852480096
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1416589811.55
Price2365.61
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.72
Leverage2
Stop loss2304.98
Take profit2486.87
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.56
Warnings
  • RSI 71.6 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ETH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_promote at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.7
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score88.20
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence83.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.7
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 88.2.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-3.10
Note
Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score31.80
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$2,365.61
Funding rate
0.0038%
Open interest
$1416.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ETH chart with overlay More thesesAll ETH theses