Thesis · thesis_mny5dhll_v8z0aq

SOL

longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-14T04:54:58Z · expires 2026-04-15

Conviction

68/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.02%

peak +0.01% · MAE -0.05%

R:R

1.8:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.35%.

Max adverse excursion hit -4.63% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$85.308

Entry high

$86.112

Target 1

$87.9532

Target 2

$89.328

Stop loss

$83.70

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross

RSI 14

33.2

Bearish

ADX 14

44.0

Very strong trend

ATR 14

1.74

2.32% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 85.25

Lower 72.55

inside

SMA stack

2078.90

5081.18

20086.29

PatternsDragonfly Doji

TA Workspace · SOL

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SOL · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $74.9690 · max 20x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 20x)

Trade plan

Position size

49.7512 SOL

$4.26K

Leverage

0.43x

≤ 10x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 1.80

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 87.9532

+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)

T2 hit @ 89.328

+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)

Stop hit @ 83.7

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open SOL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

1h ADX confirms trend strength.
4h ADX confirms trend strength.
Replay supports the live regime read.
Candidate quality is 134.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 29.3, returned 12.00%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Bear case

ADX is only near 24.1, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
The stop band sits near $83.7000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating.

Final thesis

SOL Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating. SOL cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

SOL

Timestamp1776142342975

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 63.32,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.38,
    "signal": 0.05,
    "histogram": 0.33
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 86.77,
    "middle": 83.56,
    "lower": 80.35,
    "width": 7.68
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 1.34,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 60.22
  },
  "adx14": 24.12,
  "obv": -420022.8831956203
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776142342973,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.8,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.24,
        "signal": 0.38,
        "histogram": -0.14
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 86.54,
        "middle": 86.12,
        "lower": 85.71,
        "width": 0.96
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.28,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 6.41
      },
      "adx14": 30.95,
      "obv": 68871.40928087
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776142342974,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.92,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.99,
        "signal": 0.71,
        "histogram": 0.28
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 87.21,
        "middle": 83.94,
        "lower": 80.68,
        "width": 7.78
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.74,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 56.49
      },
      "adx14": 36.69,
      "obv": 299714.9337280601
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776142342974,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.38,
        "signal": 0.05,
        "histogram": 0.33
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 86.77,
        "middle": 83.56,
        "lower": 80.35,
        "width": 7.68
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 1.34,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 60.22
      },
      "adx14": 24.12,
      "obv": -420022.8831956203
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776142342975,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.58,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.73,
        "signal": -1.27,
        "histogram": 0.54
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 88.82,
        "middle": 83.14,
        "lower": 77.46,
        "width": 13.66
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 4.09,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 47.45
      },
      "adx14": 11.28,
      "obv": -6643054.129671097
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest290587673.29

Price85.71

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %3.83

Leverage3

Stop loss83.70

Take profit89.33

Risk:Reward

1.8:1

Max drawdown %2.35

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for SOL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 32.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab: Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.
Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
Strategy lab A is validated
RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 29.3

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score100

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence98.80

Reasons

RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 29.3

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Live-learning brain

State

cooling

Score-2.80

Note

Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.

Strategy commander brain

State

supported

Score75

Note

Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.

Strategy lab brain

State

validated

Evidence Grade

Note

Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$85.71

Funding rate

0.0100%

Open interest

$290.6M

Macro regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

supported

Strategy lab

validated

Desk posture

provisional

Brain mode

fast

See SOL chart with overlay More theses All SOL theses