Thesis · thesis_mny5gvfq_4wvz26

NEAR

longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-14T04:57:36Z · expires 2026-04-15

Conviction

68/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.03%

peak +0.01% · MAE -0.03%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.56%.

Max adverse excursion hit -2.56% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$1.3988

Entry high

$1.4132

Target 1

$1.4506

Target 2

$1.478

Stop loss

$1.37

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · golden cross

RSI 14

69.0

Bullish

ADX 14

27.5

Trending

ATR 14

0.1600

5.38% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 2.99

Lower 2.11

inside

SMA stack

202.55

502.50

2001.87

TA Workspace · NEAR

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

NEAR · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $2.9876 · max 10x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 10x)

Trade plan

Position size

2,777.7778 NEAR

$3.91K

Leverage

0.39x

≤ 10x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 2.00

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 1.4506

+1.24R$123.89(+1.24%)

T2 hit @ 1.478

+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)

Stop hit @ 1.37

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open NEAR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
Replay supports the live regime read.
Candidate quality is 96.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 18.5, returned 9.82%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 60.7.

Bear case

ADX is near 37.9, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $1.3700, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis

NEAR Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. NEAR cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

NEAR

Price1.41

Timestamp1776142473157

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 60.68,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.43,
    "middle": 1.37,
    "lower": 1.31,
    "width": 8.39
  },
  "sma20": 1.37,
  "sma50": 1.34,
  "sma200": 1.29,
  "ema12": 1.39,
  "ema26": 1.37,
  "atr14": 0.03,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 82.47,
    "d": 86.24
  },
  "adx14": 37.88,
  "obv": 4053730.8252579095
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776142473156,
    "price": 1.406,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.42,
        "middle": 1.41,
        "lower": 1.4,
        "width": 1.08
      },
      "sma20": 1.41,
      "sma50": 1.41,
      "sma200": 1.37,
      "ema12": 1.41,
      "ema26": 1.41,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 5.56,
        "d": 29.3
      },
      "adx14": 15.76,
      "obv": -199261.82166934016
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776142473156,
    "price": 1.406,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.69,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.42,
        "middle": 1.4,
        "lower": 1.37,
        "width": 3.82
      },
      "sma20": 1.4,
      "sma50": 1.37,
      "sma200": 1.34,
      "ema12": 1.41,
      "ema26": 1.39,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 69.09,
        "d": 76.97
      },
      "adx14": 27.86,
      "obv": 1754239.7327036613
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776142473157,
    "price": 1.406,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.68,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.43,
        "middle": 1.37,
        "lower": 1.31,
        "width": 8.39
      },
      "sma20": 1.37,
      "sma50": 1.34,
      "sma200": 1.29,
      "ema12": 1.39,
      "ema26": 1.37,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 82.47,
        "d": 86.24
      },
      "adx14": 37.88,
      "obv": 4053730.8252579095
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776142473157,
    "price": 1.406,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.31,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.04,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.45,
        "middle": 1.27,
        "lower": 1.09,
        "width": 28.31
      },
      "sma20": 1.27,
      "sma50": 1.27,
      "sma200": 1.71,
      "ema12": 1.34,
      "ema26": 1.3,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 92.68,
        "d": 87.34
      },
      "adx14": 26.1,
      "obv": -3343600.233113614
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest40801983.85

Price1.41

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

medium

Max position %3.72

Leverage2

Stop loss1.37

Take profit1.48

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %2.56

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for NEAR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: provisional_replay_supported at 33.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Live learning: Desk recently blocked NEAR mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).
FredAI watch state has a directional spread
FredAI memory supports a controlled probe
RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is high at 34.0
replay remains supportive with score 18.5
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

FredAI policy

State

watch

Score60.70

Conviction Adjustment2

Risk Adjustment0

Confidence62.60

Reasons

RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is high at 34.0
replay remains supportive with score 18.5
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

Note

FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 60.7.

Live-learning brain

State

cooling

Score0

Note

Desk recently blocked NEAR mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score17.60

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

warming

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$1.406

Funding rate

0.0013%

Open interest

$40.8M

Macro regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime

FredAI policy

watch

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

warming

Desk posture

provisional

Brain mode

fast

See NEAR chart with overlay More theses All NEAR theses