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Thesis · thesis_mny72qpt_aey6ey
LDO

LDO

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-14T05:43:11Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.04%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.04%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -4.16%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -4.16% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3586
Entry high
$0.3630
Target 1
$0.3775
Target 2
$0.3878
Stop loss
$0.3458
LDO · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.39260.36630.34010.31390.28760.31235/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
44.1
Bearish
ADX 14
20.8
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
3.20% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.3400
Lower 0.3000
inside
SMA stack
200.3200
500.3200
2000.3600
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · LDO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

LDO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.312140 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 LDO
$2.41K
Leverage
0.24x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3775
+1.11R$111.33(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.3878
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.3458
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open LDO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 143.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 23.9, returned 20.83%, win rate 55.6%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 24.3, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3458, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • RSI 71.2 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable.

Final thesis
LDO Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable. LDO cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
LDO
Price0.36
Timestamp1776145199146
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 71.17,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.36,
    "middle": 0.33,
    "lower": 0.29,
    "width": 19.49
  },
  "sma20": 0.33,
  "sma50": 0.32,
  "sma200": 0.31,
  "ema12": 0.33,
  "ema26": 0.33,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 86.06,
    "d": 92.97
  },
  "adx14": 24.28,
  "obv": 1083981.19138096
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776145199144,
    "price": 0.36079865,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.67,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.34,
        "width": 6.85
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 51.57,
        "d": 66.16
      },
      "adx14": 66.06,
      "obv": -83464.70732800003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776145199145,
    "price": 0.36079865,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 74.45,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.33,
        "lower": 0.29,
        "width": 24.4
      },
      "sma20": 0.33,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.4,
        "d": 91.63
      },
      "adx14": 48.13,
      "obv": -204208.30916718993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776145199145,
    "price": 0.36079865,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.33,
        "lower": 0.29,
        "width": 19.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.33,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.31,
      "ema12": 0.33,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.06,
        "d": 92.97
      },
      "adx14": 24.28,
      "obv": 1083981.19138096
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776145199146,
    "price": 0.36079865,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.6,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.32,
        "lower": 0.29,
        "width": 21.94
      },
      "sma20": 0.32,
      "sma50": 0.31,
      "sma200": 0.58,
      "ema12": 0.33,
      "ema26": 0.32,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 68.43,
        "d": 47.07
      },
      "adx14": 24.43,
      "obv": -15416066.84242706
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest7502283.53
Price0.36
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.92
Leverage2
Stop loss0.35
Take profit0.39
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %4.16
Warnings
  • RSI 71.2 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for LDO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_promote at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution still needs more reset time before the desk fully trusts it again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence88.20
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution still needs more reset time before the desk fully trusts it again.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score64
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3608
Funding rate
0.0094%
Open interest
$7.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See LDO chart with overlay More thesesAll LDO theses