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Thesis · thesis_mny76v22_nyg0k0
FARTCOIN

FARTCOIN

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-14T05:45:57Z · expires 2026-04-16

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.07%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.07%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -7.21%.

  • Was up +2.42% before reversing into a loss — the winner was there but never locked in. Strongest case for a breakeven/trailing stop.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -7.21% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2075
Entry high
$0.2100
Target 1
$0.2273
Target 2
$0.2387
Stop loss
$0.1937
FARTCOIN · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.24410.21440.18460.15490.12520.14625/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
42.8
Bearish
ADX 14
44.3
Very strong trend
ATR 14
0.0100
6.84% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1600
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1600
2000.2000
TA Workspace · FARTCOIN
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

FARTCOIN · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.146230 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,644.5183 FARTCOIN
$1.39K
Leverage
0.14x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.99
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2273
+1.23R$123.26(+1.23%)
T2 hit @ 0.2387
+1.99R$199.00(+1.99%)
Stop hit @ 0.1937
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open FARTCOIN on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 101.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 21.0, returned 11.36%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 62.3.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 27.9, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1937, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
FARTCOIN Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. FARTCOIN cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
FARTCOIN
Price0.21
Timestamp1776145383161
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 61.24,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.21,
    "middle": 0.19,
    "lower": 0.18,
    "width": 18.1
  },
  "sma20": 0.19,
  "sma50": 0.19,
  "sma200": 0.18,
  "ema12": 0.2,
  "ema26": 0.19,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 76.27,
    "d": 78.57
  },
  "adx14": 27.93,
  "obv": 8486373.543630006
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776145383160,
    "price": 0.20874403,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.9,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.21,
        "lower": 0.2,
        "width": 11.23
      },
      "sma20": 0.21,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.19,
      "ema12": 0.21,
      "ema26": 0.21,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 39.9,
        "d": 49.75
      },
      "adx14": 49.83,
      "obv": 4859517.558139999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776145383160,
    "price": 0.20874403,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.37,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.21,
        "middle": 0.19,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 20.48
      },
      "sma20": 0.19,
      "sma50": 0.19,
      "sma200": 0.19,
      "ema12": 0.2,
      "ema26": 0.2,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 76.27,
        "d": 84.74
      },
      "adx14": 30.23,
      "obv": 1227488.5825099987
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776145383161,
    "price": 0.20874403,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.24,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.21,
        "middle": 0.19,
        "lower": 0.18,
        "width": 18.1
      },
      "sma20": 0.19,
      "sma50": 0.19,
      "sma200": 0.18,
      "ema12": 0.2,
      "ema26": 0.19,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 76.27,
        "d": 78.57
      },
      "adx14": 27.93,
      "obv": 8486373.543630006
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776145383161,
    "price": 0.20874403,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.69,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.21,
        "middle": 0.18,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 34.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.18,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.3,
      "ema12": 0.19,
      "ema26": 0.18,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 56.84,
        "d": 45.16
      },
      "adx14": 26.51,
      "obv": -183689764.02802995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest48485257.86
Price0.21
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.19
Take profit0.24
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %7.19
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for FARTCOIN; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_watch_directional at 33.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution still needs more reset time before the desk fully trusts it again.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.0
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score62.30
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence58.50
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.0
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 62.3.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution still needs more reset time before the desk fully trusts it again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score30.70
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2087
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$48.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See FARTCOIN chart with overlay More thesesAll FARTCOIN theses