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Thesis · thesis_mny7ua9e_ne52hr
AVAX

AVAX

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-14T06:04:34Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.03% · MAE -0.04%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +0.39%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Ran to +3.12% at peak but closed +0.39% — gave back 2.73pts. A trailing stop would have captured more of the move.
  • Survived a -4.02% drawdown before working — the stop was wide enough to absorb noise without invalidating the thesis.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$9.3576
Entry high
$9.4164
Target 1
$9.5511
Target 2
$9.6516
Stop loss
$9.24
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.1
Bearish
ADX 14
27.9
Trending
ATR 14
0.2000
2.41% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 9.27
Lower 8.04
inside
SMA stack
208.65
508.86
2009.33
TA Workspace · AVAX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

AVAX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $8.2881 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
680.2721 AVAX
$6.39K
Leverage
0.64x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 9.5511
+1.12R$111.63(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 9.6516
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 9.24
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open AVAX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 65.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 25.5, returned 22.92%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 49.3.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 22.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $9.2400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
AVAX Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. AVAX cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
AVAX
Price9.39
Timestamp1776146484860
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 54.81,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.05,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0.04
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 9.63,
    "middle": 9.24,
    "lower": 8.85,
    "width": 8.47
  },
  "sma20": 9.24,
  "sma50": 9.21,
  "sma200": 9.31,
  "ema12": 9.3,
  "ema26": 9.25,
  "atr14": 0.2,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 58.05,
    "d": 73.03
  },
  "adx14": 22.77,
  "obv": -65036.85781572002
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776146484858,
    "price": 9.387,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.1,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.02,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.53,
        "middle": 9.46,
        "lower": 9.38,
        "width": 1.52
      },
      "sma20": 9.46,
      "sma50": 9.43,
      "sma200": 9.17,
      "ema12": 9.43,
      "ema26": 9.45,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7,
        "d": 7.1
      },
      "adx14": 16.81,
      "obv": 36491.740080210024
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776146484859,
    "price": 9.387,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.08,
        "signal": 0.09,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.65,
        "middle": 9.36,
        "lower": 9.08,
        "width": 6.16
      },
      "sma20": 9.36,
      "sma50": 9.18,
      "sma200": 9.21,
      "ema12": 9.41,
      "ema26": 9.34,
      "atr14": 0.1,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 39.06,
        "d": 44.16
      },
      "adx14": 30.14,
      "obv": 137662.90409927
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776146484860,
    "price": 9.387,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.81,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.05,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.63,
        "middle": 9.24,
        "lower": 8.85,
        "width": 8.47
      },
      "sma20": 9.24,
      "sma50": 9.21,
      "sma200": 9.31,
      "ema12": 9.3,
      "ema26": 9.25,
      "atr14": 0.2,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.05,
        "d": 73.03
      },
      "adx14": 22.77,
      "obv": -65036.85781572002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776146484860,
    "price": 9.387,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": -0.04,
        "histogram": 0.06
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.62,
        "middle": 9.07,
        "lower": 8.52,
        "width": 12.2
      },
      "sma20": 9.07,
      "sma50": 9.27,
      "sma200": 13.91,
      "ema12": 9.27,
      "ema26": 9.24,
      "atr14": 0.52,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 73.95,
        "d": 72.21
      },
      "adx14": 9.2,
      "obv": -4458048.397842109
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest49938291.48
Price9.39
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss9.24
Take profit9.65
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.57
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for AVAX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_watch_directional at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked AVAX mostly because: Recent desk history has been too weak for this setup lane, so synthesis is deferred until the lane improves.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 25.5
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score49.30
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence46.50
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 25.5
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 49.3.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked AVAX mostly because: Recent desk history has been too weak for this setup lane, so synthesis is deferred until the lane improves.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score18
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$9.387
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$49.9M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See AVAX chart with overlay More thesesAll AVAX theses