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Thesis · thesis_mny8asrb_7nk7hf
ZEC

ZEC

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-14T06:16:56Z · expires 2026-04-16

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
76/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak +0.05% · MAE -0.05%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -3.48%.

  • Closed -3.48% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$360.718
Entry high
$364.682
Target 1
$374.9884
Target 2
$382.52
Stop loss
$352.79
ZEC · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
661.92580.96500419.03338.07611.995/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
60.9
Bullish
ADX 14
28.3
Trending
ATR 14
30.56
5.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 623.77
Lower 519.83
inside
SMA stack
20571.80
50557.68
200550.27
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · ZEC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ZEC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $611.7500 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
10.0908 ZEC
$3.66K
Leverage
0.37x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 374.9884
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 382.52
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 352.79
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ZEC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 81.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • SMA CROSS replay (latest asset) scored 36.1, returned 41.45%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 40.7.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 36.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $352.7900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ZEC Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. ZEC cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ZEC
Price362.70
Timestamp1776147233123
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 53.79,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 5.88,
    "signal": 9.16,
    "histogram": -3.29
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 379.11,
    "middle": 365.95,
    "lower": 352.79,
    "width": 7.19
  },
  "sma20": 365.95,
  "sma50": 334.22,
  "sma200": 257.92,
  "ema12": 362.81,
  "ema26": 356.94,
  "atr14": 14.42,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 45.2,
    "d": 46.4
  },
  "adx14": 36.55,
  "obv": 176941.19248618002
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776147233121,
    "price": 362.7,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.97,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.04,
        "signal": -0.49,
        "histogram": 0.45
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 368.98,
        "middle": 362.55,
        "lower": 356.12,
        "width": 3.55
      },
      "sma20": 362.55,
      "sma50": 363.82,
      "sma200": 363.34,
      "ema12": 363.16,
      "ema26": 363.2,
      "atr14": 3.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.7,
        "d": 53.71
      },
      "adx14": 19.19,
      "obv": -5754.323241329998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776147233122,
    "price": 362.7,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.47,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.11,
        "signal": -0.13,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 373.69,
        "middle": 362.3,
        "lower": 350.92,
        "width": 6.29
      },
      "sma20": 362.3,
      "sma50": 363.47,
      "sma200": 333.17,
      "ema12": 363,
      "ema26": 363.11,
      "atr14": 6.77,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 34.73,
        "d": 40.04
      },
      "adx14": 13.34,
      "obv": 113690.5772024599
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776147233123,
    "price": 362.7,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.79,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 5.88,
        "signal": 9.16,
        "histogram": -3.29
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 379.11,
        "middle": 365.95,
        "lower": 352.79,
        "width": 7.19
      },
      "sma20": 365.95,
      "sma50": 334.22,
      "sma200": 257.92,
      "ema12": 362.81,
      "ema26": 356.94,
      "atr14": 14.42,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 45.2,
        "d": 46.4
      },
      "adx14": 36.55,
      "obv": 176941.19248618002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776147233123,
    "price": 362.7,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.29,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 36.24,
        "signal": 25.36,
        "histogram": 10.88
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 407.66,
        "middle": 283.38,
        "lower": 159.1,
        "width": 87.71
      },
      "sma20": 283.38,
      "sma50": 249.69,
      "sma200": 340.05,
      "ema12": 329.02,
      "ema26": 292.79,
      "atr14": 27.6,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80.67,
        "d": 82.65
      },
      "adx14": 36.31,
      "obv": 2465192.4899564157
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest120470395.64
Price362.70
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.63
Leverage2
Stop loss352.79
Take profit382.52
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.73
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ZEC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score40.70
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence47.50
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 40.7.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score3.40
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score22.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$362.7
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$120.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See ZEC chart with overlay More thesesAll ZEC theses