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Thesis · thesis_mnyc9osy_a5azzl
INJ

INJ

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-14T08:08:06Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.39%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -1.39% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$3.0036
Entry high
$3.0204
Target 1
$3.0589
Target 2
$3.0876
Stop loss
$2.97
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
51.8
Neutral
ADX 14
39.0
Trending
ATR 14
0.3700
5.51% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 7.32
Lower 6.19
inside
SMA stack
206.76
506.30
2005.00
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · INJ
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

INJ · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $6.7126 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
2,380.9524 INJ
$7.17K
Leverage
0.72x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 3.0589
+1.12R$111.67(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 3.0876
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 2.97
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open INJ on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 112.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 2.51%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 20.2, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $2.9700, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable.

Final thesis
INJ Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable. INJ cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
INJ
Price3.01
Timestamp1776153903666
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.03,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 3.09,
    "middle": 2.97,
    "lower": 2.85,
    "width": 8.02
  },
  "sma20": 2.97,
  "sma50": 2.95,
  "sma200": 2.98,
  "ema12": 2.98,
  "ema26": 2.97,
  "atr14": 0.05,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 70.95,
    "d": 76.32
  },
  "adx14": 20.2,
  "obv": -122895.48443415998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji",
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776153903665,
    "price": 3.012,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 41.11,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.06,
        "middle": 3.03,
        "lower": 3,
        "width": 1.97
      },
      "sma20": 3.03,
      "sma50": 3.02,
      "sma200": 2.94,
      "ema12": 3.02,
      "ema26": 3.02,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 12.5,
        "d": 10.09
      },
      "adx14": 29.82,
      "obv": 2051.2566609899977
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776153903665,
    "price": 3.012,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.47,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.08,
        "middle": 3,
        "lower": 2.92,
        "width": 5.5
      },
      "sma20": 3,
      "sma50": 2.95,
      "sma200": 2.95,
      "ema12": 3.01,
      "ema26": 2.99,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 56.3,
        "d": 61.12
      },
      "adx14": 43.09,
      "obv": -96774.72709654996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776153903666,
    "price": 3.012,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.03,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.09,
        "middle": 2.97,
        "lower": 2.85,
        "width": 8.02
      },
      "sma20": 2.97,
      "sma50": 2.95,
      "sma200": 2.98,
      "ema12": 2.98,
      "ema26": 2.97,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 70.95,
        "d": 76.32
      },
      "adx14": 20.2,
      "obv": -122895.48443415998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776153903666,
    "price": 3.012,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.27,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.03,
        "histogram": 0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.08,
        "middle": 2.9,
        "lower": 2.71,
        "width": 12.86
      },
      "sma20": 2.9,
      "sma50": 2.99,
      "sma200": 5.41,
      "ema12": 2.96,
      "ema26": 2.96,
      "atr14": 0.14,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 79.78,
        "d": 72.47
      },
      "adx14": 9.46,
      "obv": -2310108.142578547
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1507104.59
Price3.01
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss2.97
Take profit3.09
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.39
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for INJ; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_promote at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence92.70
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
rewarding
Score3
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score62.20
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$3.012
Funding rate
0.0057%
Open interest
$1.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See INJ chart with overlay More thesesAll INJ theses