Thesis · thesis_mnyizgm0_5u647r

ARB

longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 50d ago · 2026-04-14T11:16:33Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.02%

peak +0.00% · MAE -0.02%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.76%.

Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
Max adverse excursion hit -1.76% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.1109

Entry high

$0.1114

Target 1

$0.1126

Target 2

$0.1134

Stop loss

$0.1100

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross

RSI 14

42.9

Bearish

ADX 14

22.9

Weak trend

ATR 14

0.000000

0.00% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.1100

Lower 0.0900

inside

SMA stack

200.1000

500.1000

2000.1200

TA Workspace · ARB

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ARB · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.096070 · max 10x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 10x)

Trade plan

Position size

86,956.5217 ARB

$9.67K

Leverage

0.97x

≤ 10x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 1.96

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.1126

+1.26R$126.09(+1.26%)

T2 hit @ 0.1134

+1.96R$195.65(+1.96%)

Stop hit @ 0.11

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open ARB on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
Replay supports the live regime read.
Candidate quality is 109.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 22.8, returned 9.12%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Bear case

ADX is near 48.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.1100, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable.

Final thesis

ARB Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable. ARB cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

ARB

Price0.11

Timestamp1776165219960

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 51.53,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.12,
    "middle": 0.11,
    "lower": 0.11,
    "width": 6.84
  },
  "sma20": 0.11,
  "sma50": 0.11,
  "sma200": 0.1,
  "ema12": 0.11,
  "ema26": 0.11,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 39.55,
    "d": 44.66
  },
  "adx14": 48.17,
  "obv": -3346934.2115899995
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776165219958,
    "price": 0.11114,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 30.06,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 2.34
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.11,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 1.59
      },
      "adx14": 17.88,
      "obv": -11907.150140000094
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776165219959,
    "price": 0.11114,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.34,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 3
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.11,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 25.13
      },
      "adx14": 27.27,
      "obv": 2173633.131720001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776165219959,
    "price": 0.11114,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 6.84
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 39.55,
        "d": 44.66
      },
      "adx14": 48.17,
      "obv": -3346934.2115899995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776165219960,
    "price": 0.11114,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.88,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 38.3
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.2,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 65.26,
        "d": 67.68
      },
      "adx14": 22.19,
      "obv": -69290060.70551002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate-0.00

Open Interest7756689.30

Price0.11

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %4

Leverage3

Stop loss0.11

Take profit0.11

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %1.03

Warnings

ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for ARB; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 32.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
Live learning: Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
Strategy lab A is validated
RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 22.8

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score100

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence91.60

Reasons

RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 22.8

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Live-learning brain

State

penalizing

Score-7.80

Note

Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.

Strategy commander brain

State

supported

Score60.60

Note

Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.

Strategy lab brain

State

validated

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.1111

Funding rate

-0.0001%

Open interest

$7.8M

Macro regime

disinflation_range_bear_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_range_bear_lowvol

Replay strategy

RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

supported

Strategy lab

validated

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See ARB chart with overlay More theses All ARB theses